269
FXUS62 KMFL 231311
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
911 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Quiet conditions and sunny skies prevail across South Florida
this morning. No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A broad mid level ridge will continue to build over South Florida
through the rest of the week as a departing mid level trough pushes
further away from the region into the Atlantic. At the surface,
high pressure centered to the north in the western Atlantic will
continue to be the main synoptic feature affecting the weather
pattern across South Florida during this time frame.  With a
general light east to southeasterly wind flow in place, the east
coast sea breeze will be able to propagate well inland as the day
progresses. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be focused mainly
over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea breezes
interact with each other. The steering flow aloft will remain
northerly through the end of the week. This will keep the highest
chances of shower and thunderstorm development over southwestern
areas. The potential for strong thunderstorm development will remain
low due to a lack of synoptic scale forcing and rather low
instability, however, an isolated strong storm containing gusty
winds cannot be ruled out especially over southwestern areas where
sea breeze boundaries and thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide.
High temperatures today and Friday will generally rise into the
upper 80s to around 90 along the east coast and into the lower to
mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the mid level ridge remains in
place over the region, however, it may weaken just a bit during the
first part of the weekend in response to a mid level trough moving
through the Mid Atlantic states and pushing off into the western
Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with a
developing area of low pressure will move across portions of the
Southeast.  While this frontal boundary will not get anywhere close
to South Florida, it may cause the winds to become more southerly
over the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will still be
sea breeze driven, however, with a drier north to northwesterly
steering flow aloft, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will
be rather low. The best chances of showers and storms will be
focused over the interior sections as well as the metro and coastal
areas of Palm Beach and Broward Counties. With the south to
southwesterly wind flow developing, hot conditions will develop
over the region. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will
generally range from the lower 90s across the east and west coast
to the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections as well as the
Lake Okeechobee region. Heat indices will have the potential to
range between 100 and 105 during this time frame.

Moving into the early to middle portion of next week, mid level
ridging across the region on Monday will begin to break down on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a deepening mid level trough pushes into
the eastern portion of the country. At the surface, a developing
area of low pressure will push into the Great Lakes region and
Southeastern Canada during this time frame. The frontal boundary
associated with this system will push through the Southeast and
into Northern Florida. Uncertainty remains high for this part of
the forecast as this is towards the end of the forecast period
and guidance remains in disagreement with how far south the front
progresses through the Florida Peninsula.  With the potential for
moisture to increase, the chances of showers and thunderstorms may
increase heading towards the middle portion of the week. The bigger
concern will be the heat as south to southwesterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time out ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary. High temperatures could rise into the lower to
mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 90s
across the interior sections. With moisture advection taking place,
heat indices could have the potential to range between 100 and 105
across the region with localized interior sections ranging between
105 and 110. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

L/V winds early this morning with sea-breeze circulations
switching winds to an onshore direction along both coasts later
into the early afternoon hours. VFR and mostly dry outside of a
few isolated showers across inland areas throughout the TAF
period. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in
place across the region through the end of the week across the local
waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where
winds will shift to the west southwest each afternoon due to the Gulf
breeze developing. Winds will gradually become more southerly across
all local waters as the upcoming weekend progresses. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less while seas
across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of
the week and into the upcoming weekend.  Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in
place across the region through the end of the week across the local
waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where
winds will shift to the west southwest each afternoon due to the Gulf
breeze developing. Winds will gradually become more southerly across
all local waters as the upcoming weekend progresses. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less while seas
across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of
the week and into the upcoming weekend.  Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents
will continue across the Palm Beaches through the end of the week and
into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  77  90  77 /  10   0  10   0
West Kendall     91  73  93  74 /  10   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        91  76  92  77 /  10   0  10   0
Homestead        89  75  90  76 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  89  78 /  10   0  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  88  76  90  77 /  10   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   92  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  89  73  90  75 /   0   0  10   0
Boca Raton       89  74  90  76 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           92  77  91  77 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto