998
FXUS66 KMFR 201613
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
913 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. Our weather will be
quiet, with cooler temperatures today behind yesterday`s passage
of a dry front. The one exception will be warmer temperatures at
Brookings (expected to reach the lower 80s) with downslope
warming of easterly winds. The warm temperatures at Brookings are
expected through the weekend. Seasonable temperatures will
continue for the remainder of the coast. Otherwise and elsewhere,
a warming trend will begin Saturday and continue into Tuesday.

A trough next Wednesday should start a parade of seasonably weak
fronts with at least modest cooling, but little if any chance of
rain. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail across the
area for the next 24 hours, with gusty north winds expected along
the coast through the afternoon and evening.

The exception will be areas of patchy marine stratus along the coast
north of Cape Blanco and in the vicinity of Brookings, where
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible through the morning. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Friday, September 20, 2024...A thermal
trough pattern will likely persist through early next week. This
will result in the strongest northerly winds south of Port Orford
during the afternoon and evening hours, with very steep seas and
occasional gale gusts at least into Saturday evening. Meantime,
steep seas and advisory strength northerly winds are expected north
of Port Orford.

The thermal trough is forecast to move inland with weakening winds
and easing seas late Tuesday into Wednesday. -Spilde/Hermansen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024/

DISCUSSION...Overall quiet conditions are expected over the next
several days, with upper level ridging overhead, a thermal trough
along the coast, and with a few exceptions, generally seasonable
weather across the region. With the ridge in control, the area
will remain dry until the mid-to-late next week, when the next
front may pass through the area.

Along the immediate coast, the thermal trough will continue to
produce gusty north winds, with occasional periods of fog and/or
low clouds as the marine layer make periodic inland pushes. These
clouds and fog will stay west of the coastal mountains, however,r
as the thermal trough will also result in a general dry, east
wind flow that will scour out much of the moisture and keep the
marine layer at bay. This same wind is likely to produce an
ongoing Chetco Effect as well, keeping temperatures warmer than
normal along the south coast near Brookings,

Inland, temperatures will remain around or just above normal for
this time of year, which means the first day of Fall on Sunday
will feel like a typical day in mid-September. Fall will not
arrive for good, however, when temperatures jump back up to
summertime values Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
axis amplifies and passes overhead, making those days feel more
like late July or early August.

As mentioned above, this dry pattern may change a bit with the
arrival of a front around Thursday. This system appears pretty
weak in the latest models suites, with little in the way of
moisture content, and with much of the energy well to our north.
So, other than some light rain possible along the coast and into
the Umpqua Basin, the passage of this system looks like it will
do little more than bring temperatures back down to more
seasonable values as we head into next weekend. -BPN

FIRE WEATHER...Issued 245 AM Friday, September 20, 2024... Pretty
quiet weather will continue into this weekend as the flow remains
progressive out of the north west. A Weak disturbance moves
through the Pacific Northwest around Saturday before a stronger
wave moves through the state of Washington around Sunday.

The end result should be a notable north east to south west pressure
gradient with some stronger north east winds(15 to 20 knots),
especially over the Kalmiospsis wilderness. Looking at some ensemble
data and comparing to the climatology to this time of year, nothing
jumps out as extreme. There could also be some light east breezes
instead of stronger north east winds depending on what ensemble
cluster comes to fruition around Monday night. In any case, Monday
night is a period to keep an eye on, especially for the fire weather
conditions in the extremem southwest Oregon.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$