Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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210 FXUS66 KMFR 172159 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 259 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .DISCUSSION...RADAR imagery is showing a band of showers beginning to push across portions of southern Oregon and northern California from the west. This is part of a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary which will be pushing southward across our area later today and tonight. This will keep precipitation chances relatively high, particularly along and west of the Cascades with the highest focus along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua divide. Still all areas should have at least a 15% chance for precipitation with some wetting rain possible. Meanwhile, temperatures will be mild during this time. Showers will begin to taper off from north to south on Wednesday and then we will begin a warming and drying trend. Over the weekend, we`re going to see a weak front pass to the north of our area, focusing precipitation to back along the coast and north of the Rouge-Umpqua divide. After that, we then continue the warming and drying trend as a ridge of high pressure returns to the area. In general, we are expecting still mild temperatures closer to normal next week. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...17/18Z TAFS...Periods of clear and cloudy skies are expected this morning and afternoon as one low pressure system leaves to the east while another approaches from the west. Showers will develop across the area late this afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning, with more consistent activity west of the Cascades. There are slight (20-30%) thunderstorm chances over the Pacific, with lesser (10-15%) chances over west side areas. Showers can locally lower visibilities and ceilings and obscure elevated terrain, while thunderstorms can add lightning and erratic gusty winds. In addition to the precipitation, the approaching system will bring a period of gusty winds to the Klamath Falls terminal early this afternoon that will ease in the early evening. Guidance suggests low flight levels along the Oregon coast near the very end of the TAF period, but with little agreement on when and how far levels will drop. The next round of TAFs should have more clarity on those conditions. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, September 17, 2024...A low pressure system will move south over the Pacific today through Wednesday morning, bringing chances for showers (40-90%) across all waters. Thunderstorm chances (15-30%) will share the same timing, with the highest chances at and beyond 60 nm from shore. Chances for both will decrease quickly into Wednesday morning. Stable atmospheric conditions are expected to build a persistent thermal trough through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Northerly winds will build steep seas south of Cape Blanco on Wednesday evening, with steep seas moving into northern waters through Thursday and Friday at least. Areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible south of Gold Beach through Thursday and Friday as well. A Hazardous Seas Watch is in place for Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for current areas where very steep seas are expected, but additional guidance will help to solidify the timing and area of these conditions. Some amount of unsettled seas look to continue through the weekend and into next week. Northerly winds will continue into next week but will decrease, so the severity and coverage of future hazards is likely to decrease. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon for PZZ356-376. && $$