880
FXUS62 KMHX 241328
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
928 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 930 AM Fri...Cluster of showers and sct thunderstorms
continues to lift ENE across the forecast area this morning,
now mainly north of Hwy 264. This convection will likely
continue to lift towards the Albemarle Sound region in the next
hour or two.

This afternoon, a low is forecast to develop along
a surface trough bisecting NC from NE to SW. This, along with
the seabreeze will provide even better lift for shower and
thunderstorm development. High PWATs (1.75-2+"), modest deep
layer shear (~30 kt), sufficient SBCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) and
mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) will provide an environment
capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms. The main
hazards of concern are heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.
SPC has outlined the area roughly south of HWY 264 in a Marginal
Risk (1/5) for severe weather. A more potent cluster of storms
looks to form over the coastal plain this afternoon and move SE
through the evening hours, going offshore by midnight. With the
incoming wave from the west and the seabreeze from the east,
opposing flow could cause the seabreeze to become pinned. If
this happens, that area would likely receive the highest
rainfall amount. The coastal plain and NOBX are expected to get
the bulk of the rainfall with QPF ranging from 0.5-1" with
locally higher amounts.

Highs will reach the mid/upper 80s across the coastal plain and
upper 70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue to progress eastward through the evening hours but
everything should be offshore around midnight. The severe threat
will gradually diminish after sunset with the best chance for
strong offshore storms being south of Cape Hatteras. Lows will
be mild once again in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Periods of thunderstorms through Tuesday

 - Above to well above normal temps Sunday and Monday

 - Trending drier and not as hot mid to late-week

An anomalous mid/upper level ridge will extend west to east from
Mexico to Florida through the middle of next week, with a mostly
zonal flow aloft to the north across the southern US. Within this
flow, several shortwaves originating over the Plains will traverse
the Carolinas, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass,
producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. In this type of
setup, thunderstorms are possible just about anytime of day or
night, and will be highly dependent on the track and timing of each
wave that moves through, as well as any impact from the previous
day`s convection. Each day, guidance suggests MLCAPE as high as 1000-
2000j/kg, with deep layer shear of 25-35kt. This shear/instability
combination is at least marginally conducive to severe weather, and
this is something we`ll have to keep an eye on each day. At the
moment, it appears that Sunday and Monday may carry the best
potential for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms (thanks to
the potential for higher instability and slightly higher shear).
Additionally, Monday should feature stronger forcing, which may also
aid in the thunderstorm/severe risk.

A cold front is forecast to move through Monday night, but this may
not completely shut down the thunderstorm risk right away. Some
guidance has trended a bit slower with the front, with the potential
for a wave to ride up along the front on Tuesday with another chance
of showers and thunderstorms. There isn`t yet a solid signal for
additional precip on Tuesday, but something to watch. Eventually, a
strong upper level trough is forecast to move through, providing
more of a clean sweep of low-level moisture and instability. This
will also usher in lower temperatures. Some areas inland may see
lows back in the 50s for a day or two late next week.

Prior to the arrival of the lower temps and dewpoints, there will be
a period of above to well above normal temps through Monday thanks
to warm low-level thicknesses and, in the absence of thunderstorms,
strong heating. This appears supportive of highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s inland, with low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Near-record warm lows are possible,
especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Friday...A cluster of showers and storms are moving
NE across the coastal plain. This may bring periods of gusty
winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. There will be a
lull in precip activity after this morning round with
redevelopment expected this afternoon around 18Z. All storms
should be offshore by midnight. There is a better chance for fog
development tonight across the coastal plain given the lighter
winds and widespread chances for rain today. A limiting factor
to its development, however, will be how much cloud cover will
dissipate after the precip ends tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...There will be an increased risk of TSRA
and accompanying sub- VFR conditions through early next week.
Gusty southerly winds can be expected as well, especially on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 930 AM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-3 ft. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day, although this afternoon and evening will be
when chances are greatest. Some storms could be strong to severe
with the main concerns being heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
hail. The wind field will generally be SW at 10-15 kt with winds
over the northern waters turn slightly more southerly this
afternoon. 2-3 ft seas through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Approaching Small Craft conditions Monday/Monday night

 - Periods of thunderstorms through early next week

Several upper level waves will move through the ENC coastal waters
through early next week. Each wave will bring with it a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger wave, and associated cold
front, then moves through Monday/Monday night. Southerly winds will
increase to 15-20kt ahead of this front, and may approach 25kt for
some waters. Right now, though, the risk of widespread 25kt winds
appears low (<10% chance). Seas of 1-3 ft over the weekend will
increase to 3-4 ft Monday with the building winds. The highest seas
are expected south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/CQD/OJC