868
FXUS62 KMHX 081820
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
220 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be
followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push
across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of
the work-week. A backdoor front approaches the area this
weekend, keeping active pattern in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Increased heat risk today

 - A few marginally severe thunderstorms possible along the
   seabreeze this afternoon and evening

A fairly quiet start to the afternoon with just a few showers
popping up along the Gulf Stream at this time. Sea Breeze will
be the main catalyst for storms this afternoon. There is a fair
amount of instability and moisture in place with 2000-3000 J/Kg
of CAPE and precipitable water values near 2 inches. A
southwesterly low level jet may focus some of this activity in
the southwestern part of the CWA and therefore carrying higher
PoP values in this area. There is little shear to help maintain
any of this convection and therefore expecting much of the
activity to be sub-severe at this time. Outside of convection a
few gusts of 15-20kts can be expected.

Temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s have brought heat indices into the low 100`s with a couple
of values over 105. A Heat Advisory remains in place for all
inland areas this afternoon. Tonight expect lows once again in
the mid to upper 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Afternoon convection will be in place once again on Wednesday.
With little change in the pattern another day of decent
instability and moisture will be in place but little shear to
sustain showers and thunderstorms. A marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms remains in place for areas west of highway 17. WPC
has also issued a marginal risk for flooding for a similar area
for tomorrow. Hot and humid once again but with temperatures in
the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s inland and dewpoints in
the mid 70s that should help keep heat index levels over 100
inland but just below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0445 Tuesday...A similar set up is expected for
Wednesday, with a similar threat of strong to severe storms over
the coastal plain. ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE coupled with meager bulk
shear will limit the overall severe threat. SPC has the far
western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk, mainly for the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to possibility
of water loading stronger updrafts. Elevated PWATs will
continue to support a risk for heavy rainfall and isolated
flooding, with WPC having a marginal ERO for the western
forecast area on Wednesday.

With increasing thicknesses due to the building ridge, the
warm temps are forecast to continue into Wednesday with MaxTs
in the low 90s inland from the coast, however Tds in the low 70s
should keep heat indices out of Heat Advisory range
(max AppT<105deg).


A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid
to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the
region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the
storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has marginal EROs
for Days 2-4 for at least portions of the forecast area. At
this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly
impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few
storms producing strong wind gusts. Temps expected to be near or
a couple of degrees below climo.

This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic
coast, approaching the area but currently forecast to remain
near the NC/VA border.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Slight increase in TSRA risk today (~30% chance)

 - Some risk of sub VFR CIGs this evening and tonight

VFR conditions in place this afternoon as afternoon sea breeze
convection has yet to get going. When it does, expect
KOAJ/KISO/KEWN to have a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Otherwise southerly winds at around 10 kts gusting
15-20 kts through the afternoon and subsiding after sunset. As
far as sub-VFR conditions this evening there is some hint at
MVFR ceilings especially at KPGV and KISO but uncertainty is
high. For now have just included scattered 5 kft in the TAFs at
all terminals. Any fog/low stratus should subside shortly after
sunrise on Wednesday morning.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...A series of mid-level systems will push
across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the
threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late
night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible
most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Current winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts but should be rising
through the afternoon towards 25 kts. SCA continues for
Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds for this afternoon through
the first half of tonight for 25kt gusts. Localized SCA
conditions are possible for the nearshore coastal waters from
Oregon Inlet Nward towards Duck, but these are not expected to
be very long lived and do not cover enough of the zone to
warrant an SCA issuance. With that said, don`t be surprised if
day shift issues one for these waters. Seas currently at 2-4
feet across the area.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...High pressure remains centered over the
Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across
the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW
winds around 10-20 kt (occasionally higher gusts possible),
highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient
peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term
period, however the dominant period through at least midweek
will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy
3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of weakening 1-2ft long
period swell out of the east.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RTE/RM/CEB
MARINE...RTE/CEB