670
FXUS62 KMHX 150239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1039 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough off the coast of the Carolinas will weaken
today as high pressure remains wedged across the mid-Atlantic
and central Carolinas. Low pressure developing off the Southeast
U.S. coastline impacts the area over the weekend and into early
next week, before moving inland mid-week. Troughing will remain
over the Eastern Seaboard through next week as well keeping
unsettled conditions across ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2200 Saturday...A broad area of low pressure remains
located to our south off the SE coast tonight. On the north
side of this feature scattered to numerous showers continue out
across Eastern NC with the greatest coverage offshore. Cells
begin waning quickly once making it ashore. Expect periods of
showers to continue through the rest overnight, especially along
the immediate coast, but the axis of greatest PoPs will sink S
through the overnight period. Inland locales remain dry for the
most part but an iso shower or two through the period cannot be
completely ruled out. A stiff NE breeze and extensive cloud
cover will only allow for modest cooling tonight with more of
the same on the way. Have lows mostly in the upper 60s away from
the coast, low 70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Similar conditions will continue tomorrow as
nearly stationary low pressure over the Gulf Stream begins to
organize. Widespread cloudiness is expected as well as
occasional showers which will be most widespread along the
coast. NE winds will increase through the day to 20-30 mph with
gusts to 35 mph possible along the coast as the pressure
gradient tightens. Temperatures will again be mild with
continued cloud cover, but some peaks of sun are possible across
northern NC, and some low 80s will be possible here, with upper
70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...An unsettled weather pattern is forecast for
the entire period as a rex block will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard into early next week keeping a blocking ridge centered
to the north and a stalled frontal boundary and associated
developing low pressure system off the Southeast coast. On
Monday and into Tuesday, low pressure will slowly track
northwards potentially impacting ENC during this timeframe.
Afterwards troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard into
Friday keeping things unsettled across the area with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. With steady onshore flow
over the next several days temps will remain at or below avg
through the period as well.

Sunday Night into Tuesday... Model trends continue to indicate
that an area of low pressure will develop to our south over the
Gulf Stream and track northward somewhere over the Carolinas
Mon into Tue bringing a threat for several hazards to the area.

Surface low pressure does begin to develop on Sun and it is now
looking increasingly likely that it will detach from the front
and track N to NW Mon into Tue potentially impacting ENC as a
sub-tropical or tropical low during this timeframe. EURO and
its ensembles have come on board with the GFS and its ensembles
bringing a low pressure system either into or near the
Carolinas Mon night into Tue morning before this low pushes
further north into the Mid-Atlantic and weakens. While there
has been increasing confidence in low development, there remains
low confidence in the exact track and strength of the low as it
approaches the region with both EURO and GFS ensembles having a
broad envelope of solutions for the overall outcome of the
system. This in turn results in lower confidence in what the
exact impacts are across ENC. NHC has recently increased 3/7
day development chances to 40%/50% and any development that
would occur looks to be fairly rapid so lead time on this
systems development will be unusually low given the
circumstances.

Regardless of if this system is tropical or not, there remains
the potential for heavy rain, coastal impacts, strong winds,
and dangerous marine conditions through Tue (SEE COASTAL FLOOD
AND HYDRO SECTIONS FOR MORE INFO) Temps will remain at or below
avg through Tue as well.

Wednesday through end of the week... Previously mentioned upper
trough will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface whatever low develops early this week will
have moved to the north and likely dissipated by Wed. Either way,
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
across ENC into the end of the week as troughing continues to remain
a focus for shower and tstm activity. Will note however, winds will
finally ease by Wed as the pressure gradient relaxes as a weakness
in the ridge centered to our north briefly develops, though a second
ridge of high pressure does begin to extend south into the area by
Friday. Otherwise continued onshore flow will keep clouds around the
region while temps remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 1930 Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are
present across all terminals this evening. Previous forecast and
guidance showed continued improvement to VFR late this afternoon
and into early this evening, but confidence in this is slightly
lower than it was. Have opted to include tempo MVFR CIG groups
for all TAF sites on the front end of the TAF cycle. Will still
continue to show the gradual improvement in CIGs the first part
of tonight, however flight conditions are expected to
deteriorate once again in the early morning hours. Question
remains to how low CIGs will go locally with the lowest CIGs
forecast to be centered W of the FA. Have opted to include a
tempo IFR group for PGV as confidence in the lower CIGs was
highest for this usually pessimistic ob. The chance of showers
continues into the evening for the coastal TAF sites with inland
sites being limited to an iso shower or two. Winds will
generally be NE at 5-15 kts with potential gusts of 20-25 kts.
MVFR expected to linger through midmorning with a brief
improvement early afternoon before lower CIGs spread inland from
offshore with greater shower activity.


LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat... No significant changes in the forecast
outside of an increasing likelihood of an impactful low pressure
system moving across the region on Mon and Tue. Daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms across ENC will once again bring
daily chances for sub-VFR conditions through the entire period
with the highest threat to see sub-VFR conditions on Mon and Tue
as the aforementioned low makes its way across the area. Winds
will generally remain NE-E at 5-15 kts with gusts up near 20-25
kts through Monday before winds shift to a more SE`rly direction
and become much lighter Tue into Wed as the aforementioned low
moves to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Hazardous boating conditions will continue
tonight and worsen tomorrow as strong NE winds persist across
the region. Winds will be mostly NE/ENE at 20-30 kts through
tonight and then increase to NE 25-35 kts tomorrow with the
highest wind gusts south of Cape Hatteras. Gale Watches have
been issued for these waters beginning tomorrow afternoon. Seas
will be mostly 5-10 ft through tonight and then increase to
8-14 ft by tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 PM Sat... Low pressure system develops Sun night and
eventually tracks N to NW across our area Mon night into Tue.
This low may gain some sub-tropical or tropical characteristics
as this occurs, but regardless if this low becomes tropical or
not, marine impacts will be the same. Wind gusts closer to 30-35
kts will be possible at times especially as the aforementioned
low moves through the area. High pressure eventually weakens
Tue into Wed allowing this aforementioned low to push north away
from our waters and allow the pressure gradient to relax
resulting in winds easing down to 10-15 kts with gusts up near
20 kts at times coming from a SE- SW direction from Tue
afternoon on into the end of the period.

Seas will increase to 11-15 ft seas by Mon. Further south
across the more protected waters of Onslow Bay, seas will build
closer to 5-9 ft Sun night into Monday. These elevated seas will
persist into Tue morning before rapidly lowering Tue afternoon
and evening as the aforementioned low moves through the area and
to the north allowing the pressure gradient and therefore winds
to finally ease. Expecting seas to lower to 3-6 ft across
Onslow Bay by Wed morning while further to the north seas will
lower from 11-15 ft Tue morning down to 5-6 ft by Wed morning.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the period as troughing remains entrenched over the
Southeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 PM Sat...Widespread heavy rain is expected late
tomorrow through Tuesday as an area of low pressure develops to
our south and pushes northward. Abundant tropical moisture with
this system will lead to extremely heavy rainfall rates over
areas that have become saturated over the last week. In total
4-6 inches of rain is possible along and east of the US 17
corridor, with lesser amounts expected inland over the coastal
plain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM Sat...There will be potential for minor to
moderate coastal flooding early this week as winds strengthen
in association with a developing low pressure system to our
south over the Gulf Stream. Additionally, coastal flooding may
be worsened due to the astronomically high tide cycle we are
entering. Ahead of this system, strong NE/ENE winds will
buildup water along the SE portion of the Pamlico Sound as well
as the Neuse, Bay, and Pamlico Rivers. Oceanside, high water
levels in addition to strong wave run up will likely produce
ocean overwash along NC 12 on the Outer Banks at times of high
tide. The severity of these potential impacts is not yet fully
known due to the difference in track and intensity solutions for
this low pressure system

Additionally with this system we can expect a high threat of
rip currents, rough and dangerous surf/shore break, and beach
erosion.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ195-199-203.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEB/MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX