437
FXUS62 KMHX 170832
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
432 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and
away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard through next week as well keeping unsettled conditions
across ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 405 AM Tue...Latest analysis this morning shows an
occluded low continuing to drift westward along the NC/SC
border, being steered by a mid-level ridge still firmly planted
over the northeastern CONUS. The occluded front stretches from
roughly Charlotte eastward over the Outer Banks, with deepest
moisture and the bulk of precipitation this morning demarcating
its northern edge. Forecast calls for the low to stall and fill
over the southeastern CONUS through the short term, while the
occluded front continues to lift northward and take deeper
moisture and associated rainfall with it.

The 00Z HREF run is handling the evolution of this system
relatively well, although it does not appear to depict as rapid
an onset of drying behind the front as seen on radar and
observational trends. The heavier rainfall axis will continue to
lift northward through the morning, shifting from eastern
Carteret and vicinity to the Outer Banks a couple hours after
sunrise. Rainfall amounts in the heaviest bands so far have
exceeded 2-3 inches in an hour, and this threat will persist as
the activity shifts north. The Flood Watch for areas north of
Highway 70 continues until 2 PM to account for this risk, while
south of Highway 70 the Watch is on track to be dropped by 8 AM.

Drying quickly sets in behind the front, but low clouds will
linger as low levels remain saturated. The exception will be
along the southern coast where driest air will be entrained,
leading to breaks and some sun. Did drop highs a few degrees
from the previous forecast, favoring temperatures in the upper
70s to around 80.

The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers wanes
today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Tue...Frontal boundary will shift towards the NC/VA
border overnight, and any lingering rainfall threat will remain
north of Highway 264 after sunset. Given very saturated soils,
light winds, and moist low-levels depicted by model soundings,
tonight looks ideal for widespread low stratus to overspread the
region. Lows will be slightly below average, in the mid 60s.
Farther norther and closer to the front, temps will run a few
degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the
period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend.

Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough
will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast
to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the
weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the
upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff
into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast.
As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of
the feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below
average.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early
evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued
onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps
remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Occluded surface low is migrated across the NC/SC border early
this morning with a persistent band of showers and thunderstorms
overspreading all terminals. Flight conditions, outside of
convection, are generally MVFR closer to the coast but more IFR
across the coastal plain. All sites are likely to see brief
drops to IFR in the band of heaviest showers, which is lifting
north of a line from OAJ/NJM this hour.

Near term cig trends are difficult to discern, but current
thinking is prevailing cigs should continue until mid-morning
when all sites eventually lift back to MVFR with daytime
heating. What areas eventually scatter out to VFR remains a
point of uncertainty, with the greatest odds of this from
ISO/EWN southward. Conditions look favorable for low stratus and
low visibilities Tues PM as wind fields collapse but low-levels
remain heavily saturated.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a
chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily
due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 420 AM Tue...Dangerous marine conditions persist offshore
as occluded front lifts northwards across the waters, currently
situated along the eastern half of Onslow Bay and well
demarcated by shower and thunderstorm activity on its eastern
edge. Synoptic winds are quickly collapsing as the pressure
gradient weakens in the wake of the parent low, and outside of
convective gusts regional winds are around 10-15 kt. Seas remain
quite high, sitting at 7-10 feet.

Winds are expected to weaken further, eventually becoming
southwesterly tonight behind the frontal boundary but holding at
10 kt or less. This will give seas plenty of room to subside,
and by sunrise on Wednesday all offshore waters are expected to
be below 6 feet. No changes were offered to existing SCA
headlines this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt
or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu.
Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt
Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas
could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 AM Tues...Bands of heavy rain continue to lift north
and east across ENC this morning, with the heaviest rainfall
currently focused across eastern Carteret and forecast to lift
northward across the Outer Banks through late this morning.
These bands have had a history of producing hourly rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. This is a bigger concern for
flash flooding south of Highway 70 where several inches of rain
have already fallen, but to the north where many spots have
failed to see an inch, the flash flooding risk will be more
marginal. Storm total amounts north of Highway 70 and the Outer
Banks still look to range between 1-2" with locally higher
amounts in stronger rain bands.

In response to the rainfall, river levels are beginning to rise
across ENC and will continue to do so through mid-week. Flood
Warnings are already posted at Chinquapin and Pollocksville, and
further warnings for other rivers may be needed in future
forecast cycles.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk through at least
one more high tide cycle this morning, and the Coastal Flood
Advisories have been extended to capture this potential. With
this week being a higher tide cycle, in general, the risk of
minor coastal flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments
to the advisories may be needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ080-
     094-194>196-199-203>205.
     Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX