Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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915 FXUS62 KMHX 050459 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1259 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north overnight while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and drier conditions over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this update as there will remain an isolated threat for a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder through daybreak across ENC. Otherwise expecting generally muggy and warm conditions tonight as a weak backdoor cold front eventually begins to lift north as a warm front. Prev Disc...Upper ridging continues over the Eastern Seaboard with sfc high pressure residing off the Southeast Coast. A weak backdoor front that pushed into NE sections of the FA today is already beginning to dissipate/retreat back northward evident by winds veering to S to SE. Isolated showers/tstms that occurred across the area this afternoon have for the most part dissipated as we lose daytime heating but still seeing isolated showers across the western Albemarle Sound in the vicinity of the aforementioned remnant front. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight but several models do show isolated showers which could develop along lingering boundaries as a moist and conditionally unstable environment persists across the area, so will maintain slt chance PoPs across portion of the area, mainly north of highway 70. It will be a warm muggy night with lows around 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 PM Tuesday...Guidance continues to trend drier, so PoPs have been cut back once again. Like today, any shower or thunderstorm development will be isolated to widely scattered with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE will be marginal (500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the incoming upper- level trough and create slightly better shear today (20-25 kt). Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next week. Thursday...Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity. Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to chance pops for now. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/... As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this update as the forecast calls for predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period outside of mainly diurnally driven showers and storms, though cannot rule out an isolated shower through daybreak today. While low levels remain nearly saturated and winds will be light, ensemble guidance is showing fog potential to be low, generally less than 15% chance. As we get into the day on Wed SW`rly winds will be on the increase generally persisting at 10-15 kts Wed afternoon with gusts up near 20 kts at times. WInds then quickly decrease around sunset back down to 5-10 kts. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week, with best chances for showers and storms continuing into Thursday. This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Sub- VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front will move through Fri and Fri night. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... As of 845 PM Tuesday...A weak front across the northern waters is dissipating/retreating back northward this evening while sfc high pressure remains off the Southeast Coast. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt across most waters this evening, except northern waters where SE winds will persist for a few more hours before veering to S and SW overnight. SW winds begin to increase to around 10-20 kt Wednesday afternoon as gradients begin to tighten in advance of a cold front and could see some gusts to around 25 kt. Seas mainly 1-2 ft tonight will build to 2-3 ft Wednesday. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 235 AM Tue...SSW winds around 15-20 kt Wednesday night will becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/RCF/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/SK/OJC