851
FXUS62 KMHX 131339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
939 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an
area of low pressure moves northeast off the Southeast coast. The
high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A
cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure
building into the region in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 940 AM Thu...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for morning update. High pressure will continue to
ridge in from the NE as weak sfc low begins to strengthen off
the FL coast. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance,
currently low probabilities of tropical development during the
next 48 hrs. The low will gradually move NE off the FL/GA coast
today while the high keeps ENC dry, with only bkn cirrus with
sct afternoon strato cu. With the inc cloud cover today and
easterly flow, temps near climo low to mid 80s coast and inland
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thu...The aforementioned low will move NE off the
Carolina coast tonight, with just some iso to sct showers
affecting coastal locales from Downeast Carteret through the
OBX, highest chances Hatteras Island where 30-40% pops in place.
Instability will creep upwards through the overnight, and esp
towards daybreak, and have included slight chc thunder mention
for the immediate coast (Carteret through the ctrl/srn OBX), but
most of the thunder threat should remain offshore. It will be
very warm tonight, with lows in the 70s coast, to 60s interior,
where breaks in the clouds are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday bringing
chances (20-30%) of rain along the coast

- Likely dry cold front moves through Saturday

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Friday through Sunday...Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward, likely
along the gulf stream. Decent model spread exists on the exact
location of the low as it approaches ENC. Most likely outcome is the
center of the low remains around 100-200 miles offshore as it passes
to our east. This outcome would result in minimal impacts for ENC.
The most recent Operational EMCWF run (6/13 00z) brings a weak low
(~1005mb) closer to the coast than previously indicated, about 100
miles off of OBX. This looks to be the outlier compared to other
EMCWF ensemble members, the vast majority of which keep the low ~200
miles offshore. Despite the continuing trend of the low well
offshore, scattered precip chances have increased for coastal
regions, now 30-40% Friday morning. A low track close to the
coast, while not likely, would result in hazardous marine
conditions, gusty winds, and more expansive and heavy rain,
particularly for coastal regions. Trough and associated cold
front will be moving through overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. While likely to remain dry, this front will help push
the low along, making it accelerate further NE and keeping any
impacts from the low relatively short- lived. Friday now looks
to be a tad bit warmer than Saturday, with apparent temperatures
in the mid 90s. Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow,
Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze.
Handled this with a 15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and
and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night
allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this
boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up,
but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm
formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm
weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 707 AM Thu...Pred VFR with light erly winds expected
through the TAF period. Bkn high clouds expected today, with
some sct 4k diurnal strato cu developing in the afternoon. Any
coastal showers will remain east of the terminals tonight as low
pres moves northeastward and well offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long term,
but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well offshore Friday-
Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain chances and lower ceilings
would become more favorable.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 940 AM Thu...Latest obs show E winds 5-10 kt north of
Hatteras and 10-20 kt south. Increasing easterly flow today as
low pressure begins to lift along the SE coast. Increased winds
slightly from the previous forecast, mainly south of Hatteras
where gradient will be stronger. E winds 10-20 kt south of
Hatteras and 5-15 kt north. No SCA`s expected as wind gusts will
remain below 25 kt. Seas 2-4 ft will build to 3-5 ft, highest
south of Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Friday through the weekend we have a lot
of uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc
low developing off the SE coast progresses. Potential for SCA
gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through Sunday if the sfc
low approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence
remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of
the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to
the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving
through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of
events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of
gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week
pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE
winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...CQD/TL/RJ