143
FXUS62 KMHX 072330
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM Friday...Seabreeze will fizzle out shortly as we
get later into this evening, with cloud cover also decreasing.
Dewpoints are on their way down west of the sea breeze and will drop
more rapidly once the stationary cold front finally pushes
offshore tonight. High pressure will build in behind the cold
front.

Clear skies and light winds out of the N after midnight,
coupled with the much drier airmass, will set the stage for an
unusually mild night for early June as temperatures fall into
the low 60s across the coastal plain. More typical overnight
conditions linger along the coast, with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM Friday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 1520 Friday...Flow aloft becomes
purely zonal behind the shortwave that passes overhead through
the day tomorrow. Winds start out Nerly with approaching SFC
high centered to the W of the FA, then Werly in the afternoon
with local sea/sound/river breezes dominating coastal wind
patterns. Highs just a degree or two lower than Fri, MaxTs in
the upper 80s most, upper 70s-low 80s for seabreeze cooled
locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Saturday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 725 PM Friday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period
with clear skies and light winds once the diurnal cu dissipates
later this evening. Only chance for subVFR in the period will
be if the front stalls over the area overnight as opposed to
pushing offshore tonight, which could lead to some fog
development. Chances of this happening are very low.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 PM Friday...No major changes with this update. Still
expecting a N`rly surge behind the cold front with marginal,
short lived gusts near 25 kts N of Cape Hatteras.

Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Friday...Forecast today calls
for gradual improvement through the day as front slowly
approaches from the west. Southwesterly winds will increase this
afternoon to around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but
will gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into
Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance
suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with
gusts approaching 25kt behind the front, particularly for the
waters N of Cape Hatteras and PamSound. If this does occur, it
will be brief - no more than a couple hours, so have opted to
not issue an SCA for this Nerly surge. Seas 2-4ft in short
period wind waves fall to 2-3ft after the Nerly wind surge. Seas
continue subsiding to widespread 2ft@5-7sec Sat with light to
moderate N-NW winds 5-15 kt veering to become onshore once the
seabreeze circulation kicks in.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday
ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt
by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will
be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts.
Winds will grad diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat
and Sun, building to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and
low pressure area may impact the waters Monday night into
Tuesday, though given the spread in the guidance and little run
to run consistency, confidence remains low through mid week. SCA
conditions will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ