Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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858 FXUS62 KMHX 071934 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through today and this evening, with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1515 Friday...Seabreeze will provide a focal point for shower and storm development late this afternoon and evening, but only carrying broad SChc PoP. Activity is expected to be isolated at best thanks to a much drier column aloft (PWATs about a half inch lower than this morning). Werly surface flow will keep sea breeze and convective activity pinned along the coast, ensuring the coastal plain remains dry. Shear will be very weak and no severe threat is expected. Still very warm today with highs nearing 90 inland, but not as oppressive as Tds fall into the upper 50s across the coastal plain. Along the coast, humid conditions hold on with Tds in the upper 60s to around 70. Any convective activity that does happen to pop up will quickly collapse before sunset as cold front eventually pushes offshore tonight and high pressure builds in its wake. Clear skies and light winds out of the N after midnight, coupled with the much drier airmass, will set the stage for an unusually mild night for early June as temperatures fall into the low 60s across the coastal plain. More typical overnight conditions linger along the coast, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 1520 Friday...Flow aloft becomes purely zonal behind the shortwave that passes overhead through the day tomorrow. Winds start out Nerly with approaching SFC high centered to the W of the FA, then Werly in the afternoon with local sea/sound/river breezes dominating coastal wind patterns. Highs just a degree or two lower than Fri, MaxTs in the upper 80s most, upper 70s-low 80s for seabreeze cooled locales. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance. Saturday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s to low 90s Sun. Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance. Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty, will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but capping at chance. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/... As of 1315 Friday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Main focus for aviation interests is isolated convective potential this afternoon along the seabreeze. With more W-WNWerly flow aloft, activity will migrate little from the coast. Expecting activity to remain E of TAF sites. Have removed thunder mention for EWN but left in for OAJ due to their proximity to where the front will collide with the pinned seabreeze. Coastal Plain terminals remain dry. Any activity will quickly collapse with loss of heating, with skies becoming clear by tonight. Breezy Werly winds could gust to 15+ kt at times this afternoon, particularly across the coastal plain. Only chance for subVFR in the period will be if the front stalls over the area overnight as opposed to pushing offshore tonight, which could lead to some fog development. Chances of this happening are very low. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 310 PM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon night into Tue with sct showers and storms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1530 Friday...Forecast today calls for gradual improvement through the day as front slowly approaches from the west. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon to around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but will gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with gusts approaching 25kt behind the front, particularly for the waters N of Cape Hatteras and PamSound. If this does occur, it will be brief - no more than a couple hours, so have opted to not issue an SCA for this Nerly surge. Seas 2-4ft in short period wind waves fall to 2-3ft after the Nerly wind surge. Seas continue subsiding to widespread 2ft@5-7sec Sat with light to moderate N-NW winds 5-15 kt veering to become onshore once the seabreeze circulation kicks in. LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... As of 310 PM Fri...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts. Winds will grad diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat and Sun, building to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and low pressure area may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency, confidence remains low through mid week. SCA conditions will be possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB