002
FXUS62 KMHX 231554
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1154 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has pushed offshore and the next trough is making
its way east, which will open the door for shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. A series of
upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of shower
and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger cold
front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1130 AM Thursday...Forecast generally on track for today.
12z hi-res guidance limits convection across the area until
after 6 pm when a vort max associated with upstream convection
presently across eastern TN/KY approaches the area. Only the
CMC-reg shows sea breeze convection across the Pamlico-Albemarle
Peninsula. So will keep PoPs below mentionable until this
evening. SPC continues a marginal risk of severe across western
counties as a few storms this evening could bring damaging wind
gusts and perhaps large hail. As we move through the evening,
instability will wane and the severe threat should end by
midnight but showers and isolated tstms may continue through the
overnight.

Previous discussion...A toasty, breezy, and slightly muggy day
with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms is
on tap. A mid/upper level ridge will slide offshore today and
make way for the next incoming trough. Temps are expected to
break 90 across the coastal plain with the beaches a few degrees
cooler around 80. Dew points will be on the rise too as a
southwesterly LLJ pumps in ample moisture, sending our PWATs to
1.5-2". PoPs will increase from west to east this afternoon as a
shortwave moves through, but it`s possible for a few showers
and storms to develop along the seabreeze before the main line
of activity makes its way east across the coastal plain a few
hours later.

The CAMs are not in great agreement on when convection will begin,
but the most likely scenario is for isolated storms to develop
across the coastal plain later in the afternoon (18-22Z) with
activity becoming more widespread as a broken line of convection
pushes east through the evening hours. SPC has part of the coastal
plain outlined in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather with the
main hazards of concern being gusty winds and hail. The strength of
storms will be highly dependent on when they develop, however. If
CAMs with earlier initiation (18-22Z) are correct, storms will have
a better environment to tap into, especially across the coastal
plain, with sufficient SBCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) and modest deep layer
shear (30-35 kt). If CAMs with a later initiation are correct (00Z
and later), the severe threat will have decreased with the loss of
daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Convection is expected to continue
pushing eastward through the overnight hours. As storms make it
closer to the coast, the environment will become less conducive
to support strong to severe storms. Therefore, the overnight
severe threat is low. Lows will be mild across the area (65-70).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Weak front will move into Eastern NC on Friday bringing a chance
(30-50%) of rain.

- Weather remains unsettled for the weekend and into early next week
with small chances (20-30%) each day through Tuesday

- Above normal temperatures for much of the period with inland areas
in the mid to upper 80s and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

Much of the long term forecast will be characterized by
unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible each
through midweek before drier conditions prevail.

The period will begin on Friday with a weak frontal system with the
parent high over the Canadian Maritimes gradually sinking into the
Carolinas. By the time it arrives, there will not be much of an
airmass change with warm and moist conditions remaining prevalent.
While this is happening the tail end of the departing system will
combine with an approaching system from the west creating a
stationary front that will feature several shortwaves pulsing along
it through the weekend. While no day will likely be a washout,
periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected particularly
during diurnal peak heating.

Along with the rain chances, temperatures are expected to be above
normal and heat index values creeping into the low to mid 90s,
especially inland locations on Sunday and Monday afternoons. These
two day will present the hottest conditions before a bit of
relief although still warm for the middle part of the week.

For next week model confidence is very low as attention turns to a
slow meandering low pressure system over the upper midwest that will
bring the next wave of moisture in from the west. Forecasted
precipitation chances are low for now due to the uncertainty
but would not be surprised to see them increase in future
iterations of the forecast as models get a better idea of how to
handle on what right now is a very disorganized system at best.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00Z Friday/...
As of 1:30 AM Thursday...Currently VFR across the board with
continued low-confidence in fog development compared to last
night. Low-level moisture is increasing but winds aren`t expected
to fully decouple all night, which leans the forecast toward
patchy fog development instead of widespread impactful fog. OAJ
and EWN have the best chance at seeing reduced VIS, so have
continued to carry 6SM MIFG with a TEMPO group for 4SM BR.
Tomorrow, southwesterly flow picks up (10G15KT) with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing from west to east in the late
afternoon/early evening. Conditions will gradually deteriorate
from there but are expected to remain VFR through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...For Friday and beyond expect rain and
thunder chances each day with afternoon hours being most
susceptible to convection. Southwest winds will prevail for much
of the period with speeds of 5- 10 kts gusting to 15.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...5-10 kt southwesterly winds will increase
to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt later today. Seas will be
mostly 2 ft across the coastal waters but will build to 2-3 ft
in response to the bump in winds. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the coastal plain in the
afternoon/early evening but weaken as they move east. Stronger
storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20
kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/OJC
MARINE...RTE/OJC