Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
360 FXUS63 KMKX 140943 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 443 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less humid today and Saturday with seasonable highs. - Thunderstorm chances return late Saturday into Sunday. - Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work week. Heat indices in the upper 90s may be possible Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today through Saturday: Quiet, less humid, and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday as high pressure slides east over the Upper Great Lakes. A weak trough should sink south over the lake during the post dawn hours and generally wash out with southward extent. In our area, this process will drive a subtle wind shift off of Lake Michigan from northerly to more northeasterly. Northeast fetch off of the lake will work to dampen daytime highs, particularly in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties as well as eastern portions of Fond du Lac County. High in these areas will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, while areas inland will see highs near 80s. Conditions remain dry during the daytime hours on Saturday with similar highs. Upper level WAA will lead to increasing cloud cover throughout the day. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 442 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: 850mb warm advection is expected to cause an area of poorly organized showers and storms to lift northeast over the Upper Mississippi Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night ahead of an area of organizing surface low pressure. The rain will initially fight lingering low to mid lvl dry air from high pressure that will have exited east toward the Lower Great Lakes by that time, delaying the onset of the showers and storms. Current thinking is we`ll likely remain dry until after Midnight Sunday, with 40% PoPs moving in for areas northwest of the US Hwy 151 corridor during that time. MUCAPE will be below 1000 J/kg, amid effective bulk shear below 20 knots, limiting any potential for severe weather. The warm advection wave that sparked the rain will usher in hot conditions from Sunday into the middle of the work week. Daytime highs Sunday through Tuesday will be near 90, and dew points near 70 will support heat indices in the upper 90s, especially Monday and Tuesday. Slight chance to Chance PoPs (15 to 30%) linger during this time, as we`ll be on the northwest periphery of a massive ridge over the southeastern US. Disturbances will ride northeast around the ridge, perhaps bringing some passing chances for thunderstorms; details still need to be resolved by CAMs as the work week draws closer. Toward the end of the extended, there may be some relief, as models depict a cold front sagging south over Wisconsin, knocking down highs by 7 to 10 degrees. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 358 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Fog is expected in the Wisconsin River Valley and should be confined largely confined there, outside of some roaming banks of ground fog, until daytime mixing takes hold after sunrise. Otherwise area- wide VFR is expected today, with perhaps FEW to SCT coverage daytime cu based around 6000 to 7500ft this afternoon. Winds will be modest with north- northeast to northwest winds this morning, shifting to all northeasterly during the late morning and through the afternoon. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Somewhat light and variable winds will become northerly over most of the lake around dawn this morning as high pressure of 30.2 inches sinks southeast into the Upper Great Lakes. Going into this afternoon, a weak trough will sink south over the lake and wash out. Winds over the southern half of the lake, south of the trough, will features northerly gusts up to 20 knots. These elevated winds should continue into tonight, before gradually tapering off. Winds then grow southeasterly as high pressure exits eastward by Saturday morning. Modest southeasterly winds will then persist through Saturday into Saturday night. Winds will then turn southerly and gusty on Sunday as a tighter pressure gradient moves over the Upper Great Lakes. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee