Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
051 FXUS63 KMKX 180716 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 216 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues through the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal. - Dry conditions prevail through Thursday, then a cold front brings showers and storm potential Thursday night and Friday. On and off chances for showers and storms are then expected later Saturday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Today through Thursday: High pressure across the eastern US will finally start to break down from the west, though the upper ridge will hold on long enough to keep the CWA dry through Thursday. Both today and Thursday have trended warmer with 925mb temps today expected to be in the 21-23 C range while Thursday may see 925mb temps in the 23-25 C range. This will bring highs today and Thursday to the mid 80s and upper 80s respectively, especially given the expected largely clear skies. However onshore flow near the lake will keep temperatures cooler near the shorelines. This will impact today moreso than Thursday as winds Thursday will turn more south/southwest. Some patchy fog this morning and likely again Thursday, especially closer to the lake but otherwise the quiet weather pattern will continue through Thursday. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Thursday night through Tuesday: Starting Thursday night we will finally see the high pressure pushed out with a cold front pushing in associated with a low pressure system over central Canada. This front is expected (55-70%) to bring showers and storms through the evening and overnight period for the western parts of the CWA but models suggest the front will weaken into the day Friday and thus chances will be lower (25-35%) with more scattered activity expected. This will be in part due to the weaker forcing aloft as the ridging to the south remains in place, perhaps nudging back in to the region. However this effect will be brief. Although much of Saturday has trended drier given the slowed nature of the approaching upper low by Saturday night approaching from the southwest with impacts likely continuing through at least Tuesday. The surface low associated with the upper low is currently expected to push through some time Monday into Tuesday. While uncertainty beyond Tuesday is higher, models generally suggest a return to a drier forecast with upper level ridging sliding back in. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Some patchy ground fog again across areas closer to the lake this morning but this will quickly clear up as the sun comes up this morning. Otherwise clear skies and VFR conditions through the day with light southeast winds. Some more potential for patchy ground fog again overnight tonight, especially closer to the lake. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure over New England and low pressure over the northern high plains will keep winds light through today. High pressure will gradually weaken and drift farther east on Thursday, with the low over the plains strengthening. This will produce modest south to southeast winds Thursday into Friday. In addition, a weak front will push southeastward across the open waters into Friday, bringing potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drier condition expected Saturday before another low pressure will begin to push into the Great Lakes region into early next week, with winds remaining generally easterly ahead of this system. As the low pressure approaches, additional showers and thunderstorm chances develop. A return to drier conditions behind the low pressure is expected by mid next week with a return to a more westerly wind pattern. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee