441
FXUS62 KMLB 210205
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida through
the remainder of tonight. Showers and isolated storms are forecast
to continue developing across the local Atlantic waters overnight,
with guidance keeping the peninsula mostly dry. Northeast winds
will remain around 5 to 10 mph, which should keep any potential
for fog development low. Skies will remain clear overnight, with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions forecast through the overnight hours at all
terminals. Breezy to gusty northeast winds will diminish over the
next couple of hours to 5 to 10 knots out of the north-northeast.
Winds will then pick back up after 15Z from the northeast, with
some slight veering to out of the east-northeast as the east coast
sea breeze develops and moves inland. Confidence remains low in
showers and storms developing along the coast, but some guidance
is hinting at showers and storms across the interior terminals as
the sea breeze moves inland. As a result, VCTS is in the forecast
for MCO, ISM, SFB, and LEE. Will adjust as needed. Showers and
storms will likely diminish across the interior after 22Z. Winds
remaining breezy between 10 to 15 knots at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will shift south of the Treasure
Coast waters this evening, with N/NE winds up to 15-20 knots north
of Sebastian Inlet, decreasing to 10-15 knots to the south. Small
craft should exercise caution over the Volusia/Brevard County waters
for these elevated winds and seas building up to 6 feet offshore.
N/NE winds will diminish overnight to 5-10 knots late tonight,
but poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Volusia and
Brevard counties as seas up to 6 feet linger.

Isolated stronger storms will have the potential to push offshore,
mainly near to south of Fort Pierce Inlet late this afternoon and
into this evening, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and possibly some hail.

Tuesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Northeast winds into
Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts.
Winds weaken further into Friday to around 5-10 kts and veer to the
south, with winds becoming E/SE each afternoon and evening from late
week and into the holiday weekend as the sea breeze develops each
day and moves inland. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening, and
fall even further to around 2 ft into Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are still
possible across the coastal waters on Tuesday, with coverage
following a downward trend each following day through mid to late
week. Potential for showers and storms then increase into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  70  85 /  10  30   0  10
MCO  70  88  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
MLB  72  85  72  86 /  10  30  10  10
VRB  70  87  71  88 /  10  30  10  20
LEE  69  88  71  91 /  10  30   0  10
SFB  69  87  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
ORL  71  88  71  90 /  10  40   0  10
FPR  70  87  70  87 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen