438
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat concerns continue through the holiday weekend, with highs
  in the 90s and peak heat indices over 100.

- Afternoon storms will be possible today, with frequent lightning
  strikes, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail the
  primary concerns with any storms that develop.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level ridge axis extending from Mexico
across the Gulf and into the southeastern US is shunted south over
Florida through Monday afternoon, as a broad trough swings across
the CONUS. Increasing subsidence from the ridge and weak high
pressure draped across Florida from the western Atlantic will
cause afternoon highs to soar into the 90s both days for just
about everyone except a few lucky spots on the barrier islands
holding short in the U80s, pushing into the U90s across the
interior, while the usually hotter parts of Okeechobee and
southern Osceola counties flirt with 100 on Monday. Peak afternoon
heat indices will reach between 96-103 Sunday, and 99-104 Monday
(down a bit from previous forecast thanks to slightly lower dew
points, but will need to see if this trend holds). Speaking of
moisture, while PWATs 1.4-1.6" will be similar to today, higher
temperatures will result in lower relative humidity, and
increasing mid-level temperatures will reduce instability,
knocking rain and storm chances down to just 20 pct from the
Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee. With the surface ridge to our
south, prevailing westerly flow will slow inland progression of
the east coast sea breeze while accelerating the west coast sea
breeze (which will also help crank those highs up), resulting in
an mostly uneventful collision near or or just east of the Orlando
Metro area Sunday, then a little further east Monday as the
westerly flow finds a few extra miles per hour but remains near or
below 10 mph.

Tuesday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Mid-level
troughing will dig into the southeastern US on Tuesday into
Wednesday, pushing a weak frontal boundary into Florida. The
boundary will likely stall across central Florida, keeping a
sufficient band of moisture present locally through the remainder
of the forecast period. Diurnal afternoon convection is forecast
to return across east central Florida and continue through the
remainder of the period. The east coast sea breeze will prompt
development of isolated showers and storms as it moves inland,
with the sea breeze collision across the peninsula leading to an
increase in shower and storm coverage each afternoon. The highest
rain chances are forecast on Tuesday afternoon, with PoPs 30 to 50
percent. Wednesday through Friday, rain chances diminish slightly
to around 20 to 40 percent. Shower and storm chances decrease each
evening into the overnight hours. Heat will continue to be a
concern through the long term as temperatures each afternoon
continue to climb into the 90s. Heat indices will continue to
reach over 100 Tuesday and Wednesday, falling to 95 to 100
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Rest of Today-Sunday...Favorable winds and seas today, but
isolated to scattered lightning storms are expected to push
offshore late this afternoon and evening, working eastward across
the waters through the early overnight. Some of these storms could
become strong, capable of gusty winds over 35 kts and locally
higher seas. Generally favorable boating conditions Sunday, with
just a few showers and storms possible across the Treasure Coast
waters. The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure will remain
south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light SW-WSW in the
overnight and morning, becoming calm and variable at times, that
back to SE-ESE at 10-15 kts in the afternoon after the sea breeze
develops. Seas 1-3 ft.

Monday-Wednesday Modified Previous Discussion)...Generally favorable
boating conditions will continue into the middle of next week.
West-southwest winds will become south-southeast each afternoon
as the east coast sea breeze develops, with wind speeds 5 to 10
knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots each afternoon through the
period. Seas are forecast to remain between 1 to 3 feet. Monday,
drier air present across the Florida peninsula will continue to
limit rain and storm chances, with any development that does
occur likely remaining south of the Cape. Rain chances increase
again on Tuesday and Wednesday across the local Atlantic waters as
a weak front stalls across or just north of the waters, with
showers and storms that develop across the Florida peninsula
moving offshore into the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Activity will diminish into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm temperatures across the Florida peninsula will persist
through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, leading
to sensitive fire weather concerns. Across the interior, minimum
RH values between 35 to 45 percent are forecast each afternoon
through at least Thursday. Winds are forecast to remain below 15
mph through the period. Lightning storm development will be
possible today and again Tuesday through Thursday along the sea
breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Winds 5-10 KT this afternoon with winds SW across the interior,
and onshore along the coast. The east coast sea breeze has formed
and is beginning to push inland. Isolated showers have developed
near MCO this afternoon, so have started VCSH a little earlier
than previous TAF packages. The sea breeze collision is still
expected to occur near MCO/ISM around 21Z. Have kept VCSH/VCTS for
the rest of the terminal starting at 19Z. TEMPOs for TSRA impacts
at MLB- SUA from 20-24Z. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in
stronger storms. Showers and storms should clear by 00-02Z. VFR
conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Winds
will become light and variable overnight before speeds increase to
around 5-10 KT and winds become SW across the interior and
onshore along the coast by mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  93  72  94 /  20  10   0  10
MCO  72  97  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  73  90  74  93 /  30  10  10  10
VRB  71  92  73  94 /  30  10  10  20
LEE  73  95  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  72  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  71  92  72  95 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson