Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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797 FXUS62 KMLB 170140 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 940 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A line of scattered showers and isolated lightning storms that developed along boundary collisions near the stalled frontal boundary extends from Polk County into Osceola, Brevard, and northern Indian River Counties. While individual cells are generally moving to the east-southeast at 15-20 mph, the line itself is mostly stationary, and there is a small chance for storms or heavy showers to get hung up on a boundary and produce locally high rainfall amounts. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusts to 40 mph will also be possible. In addition, with modest bulk shear and strong surface convergence along outflow boundaries, a funnel cloud or even a waterspout cannot be ruled out. HRRR seems to be handling this activity the best, albeit 2-4 hours to slow, so generally used that guidance with temporal correction to make some adjustments to forecast PoPs. Expect this activity to push offshore over the next few hours, with maybe a very slight shift to the south. Otherwise, no significant changes to a mostly quiet overnight forecast. Only other weather concern continues to be patchy fog development across the interior in the early morning hours. Winds light northeasterly to easterly, becoming variable/calm at times, under mostly cloud skies, with overnight lows in the L-M70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the evening and first half of the night. A line of TSRA/SHRA has developed on boundary collisions from west to south of KMLB, which could propagate southeastward towards KVRB-KSUA the next several hours, so added VCTS generously through 07Z-08Z at these terminals. Dry conditions at the northern terminals, but the frontal boundary stalled across CFL could help produce more MVFR- IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS impacts, though only KLEE has chances high enough for reductions in the TAFs. Any stratus or fog that develops should clear by 14Z-15Z, with a typical diurnal seabreeze pattern and near normal afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys 41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones. Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6 feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally range around 5-10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the waters. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 20 40 MCO 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 10 50 MLB 76 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 50 VRB 76 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50 LEE 73 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 50 ORL 75 91 74 92 / 20 50 10 50 FPR 76 90 73 90 / 30 50 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Haley