456
FXUS62 KMLB 230701
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late
week...

...Isolated afternoon showers and lightning storms possible into
the holiday weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with
highs well into the 90s...

Current...Mostly dry across the area early this morning as deep
layer moisture values are rather pathetic (below normal). Weak
high pressure ridging exists across north-central FL. A light
onshore flow will promote morning lows well into the 60s with some
L70s. Skies mostly clear with a few clouds noted across the
Treasure Coast. Not expecting much in the way of fog development,
but smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires
will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area
roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire.

Today-Tonight...Mid-level troughing continues across the western
Atlc/Bahamas with mid-level ridging centered in the SW GoMex
extending into the FL peninsula. Mid-level winds will be out of the
NW/N. At the surface, initial weak high pressure ridging off of the
Carolina coast will weaken further and drift slowly eastward. This
will promote a fairly weak pressure gradient across ECFL. Initial
light morning winds will become onshore as the sea breeze develops
and pushes inland. PWAT values between 0.80-1.10 inches will only
increase marginally and precip chances will remain below 10pct
areawide and will leave out any mention in the grids/zones.
Temperatures continue to trend upward, with highs in the M-U80s for
the immediate coast and L-M90s into the interior. Overnight lows
remain consistent with conditions humid, and values well into the
60s to L70s.

Fri-Wed...Much of this period will be highlighted by increasing
temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the GoMex to
across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent
shortwave energy remains north of the area. Some weak energy aloft
does finally push south across the area by late Tue thru mid next
week. At the surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in
place thru the weekend. Surface high pressure does get nudged
further south/east late in the weekend and early next week with a
potential frontal boundary getting forced south into the area
late Tue/Wed. These two days will also have the deepest moisture
across the area with the highest PoP chances over the extended.
PoPs mostly absent from the forecast on Fri, though will have to
watch late in the day/early evening well into the interior with
any sea breeze collision, and a 20pct chance (aftn/evening) or
less Sat-Mon, with most areas remaining dry. Chc (30-40pct) PoPs
returning Tue-Wed.

Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s
for many inland areas at least thru Tue. Heat indices in the U90s
to L100s on Fri, then L-M100s each day thru at least Tue and some
U100s Sun-Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which
would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions overnight
humid with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra
precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial
Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned
areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Today-Tonight...Overall favorable boating conditions with weak
high pressure across the area. Light ERLY onshore flow thru this
period, except may become light/variable to light SSW late tonight
into early Fri morning with a weak pressure gradient in place.
Seas 2-3 ft. Perhaps a few light showers early this morning across
the Treasure Coast waters, but mostly dry conditions otherwise.

Thu-Sun...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be
increasingly hot and any shower/storm chances will only be ISOLD
to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again
become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea
breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light
offshore component or become light/variable each overnight period.
Seas mostly AOB 3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Into the Memorial Day weekend...increasingly hot and mostly dry
conditions. A warming trend will take afternoon max temps into the
90s with heat indices into the 98F-105F range, and potentially to
108F (Heat Advisory criteria) Sun-Mon, esp south of Orlando and
Melbourne. Very little relief in terms of showers/ISOLD storms
expected. Min aftn RH values 35-45pct across the interior as fire
sensitivity is likely to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Onshore winds will
persist across the terminals at 5 to 10 knots through this
afternoon and into the evening hours. After 03Z, winds are then
forecast to veer to out of the southeast around 5 knots overnight.
Dry conditions are expected at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  93  70  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  87  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  88  69  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  93  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  92  69  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  93  71  95  74 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  88  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen