Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
125 FXUS62 KMLB 070143 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 943 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Sea breeze collision occurred west of Lake County this evening, but no showers or storms have developed as a result. A few showers may still develop over the coastal waters overnight, but a lighter low level southerly steering flow should keep any of this activity over the waters overnight. Have therefore removed any PoPs for the rest of the night. Dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast to prevail, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Mostly VFR tonight into tomorrow. Dry conditions should prevail tonight through Tuesday morning. However, isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will form into the afternoon with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries and sea breeze collision across the interior, near to west of Orlando into late day. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with this activity, but rain chances remain low enough to only keep mention of VCSH across interior sites for now. S/SE winds 5-10 knots tonight will become SE up to 10-15 knots along the coast Tuesday afternoon as sea breeze moves inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Tonight...S/SE winds around 10-15 knots will continue across the waters overnight, with seas 2-3 ft. Isolated showers will still be possible, mainly over the offshore waters. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Tue...Warming trend ensues as shortwave ridging aloft builds back into the area with rising mid-level heights. At the surface, the east-west oriented ridging begins to weaken and gradually slide southward. The sea breeze will develop again, but will be slower to push inland with an eventual collision with its west coast counterpart from Lake George-Orlando-near the Kissimmee River. PoPs will range from 30pct interior and 20pct closer towards the coast in the afternoon-evening. Light morning S/SSW winds will transition to ESE behind the sea breeze in the afternoon with speeds approaching 15 mph in its wake. Highs begin to ramp up with M-U80s near the coast and 90F-L90s inland (W of I-95). Wednesday-Friday...Drier air will filter in across east central Florida mid-to-late week as a mid/upper level ridge builds over the Southeastern US with 500mb heights reaching 588-590dm over central Florida Thursday afternoon. The aforementioned ridge is expected to breakdown and weaken Thursday night into Friday as a major shortwave trough deepens over the upper midwest Thursday and before deepening over the eastern Seaboard Friday. South to southwest low level flow will become pronounced late week as high pressure over the western Atlantic weakens and moves east ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night. Global models suggest that isolated showers are possible Wednesday but I`ve kept mentionable PoPs out of the forecast through Friday morning given substantial dry air in the low and upper levels with RH values in the 30-40% range across the interior. Rain chances return Friday ahead of a cold front that will slowly move east-southeast across east central Florida late Friday into Saturday morning. Isolated showers and lighting storms are forecast to develop Friday afternoon and evening, mainly to the north of I-4 (PoPs ~30-40%). Winds will be breezy from the southwest with gusts up to 25-30mph. Afternoon highs are expected reach near records with the hottest air of the season to date forecast. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and the low to mid 90s inland west of I-95 Wednesday. Highs are expected to then increase to the low to mid 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s inland west of I-95 Thursday with the low to upper 90s forecast Friday. Heat index values are forecast to reach the mid 90s to low 100s with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Saturday-Monday...Guidance shows the cold front stalling across south-central Florida through the weekend which keeps rain chances in the forecast (PoPs ~30-50%). However, the GFS indicates that zonal flow aloft will become meridional Sunday into Monday which would result in higher rain chances and periods of heavy rainfall as upper level perturbations pivot over the Southeastern US and the state of Florida through Monday. The CMC shows a similar solution with the ECMWF keeping central Florida drier with isolated showers Sunday and Monday. Either way, Monday appears to be the best chance for areawide (east central Florida) rain through the extended. PoPs rise to 30-60% with the highest rain chances across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county Monday. The primary hazards will be brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes Saturday and Sunday with a better chance for strong storms to develop Monday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday and the low 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday. Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected Saturday, then the low 60s to low 70s Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Tue...The low-level ridge axis will weaken and begin to slip slowly southward across the area. Light morning S/SSW winds will transition ESE in the afternoon with sea breeze formation, but slower push inland than recent days. Seas of 2-3 ft persist. Only ISOLD threat for showers and lightning storms. Wednesday-Friday...High pressure will remain in control, before weakening Friday ahead of an approaching cold front over the Southeastern US. Boating conditions are expected to become poor Thursday into Friday. South-southwest winds at 10-15kts are forecast to back onshore into the afternoon Wednesday and Thursday with speeds increasing to 15-22kts Thursday. South to southwest winds at 12-20kts are forecast Friday. Seas will build to 2-4ft with up to 5 ft offshore early Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast Friday afternoon with the potential for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and occasional lighting strikes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Tue...Surface ridge axis begins to slip slowly southward as morning S/SSW winds gradually "back" to ESE with a slower inland sea breeze push in the afternoon (coast-inland). Speeds could approach 10-15 mph with some higher gusts behind this feature. Aftn-evening PoPs approach 30pct interior/20pct near the coast. Min aftn RH values 35- 40pct well into the interior and 45-55pct closer towards the coast. Wednesday through the extended...Drier air will filter in across east central Florida Wednesday and Thursday with RH values expected to drop into the upper 30s over the interior west of I-95 Wednesday and Friday and the low to mid 30s Thursday. Additionally, southwest winds are expected to back onshore into the afternoon Wednesday as the sea breeze pushes inland at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20mph and at 10-15mph along the coast with gusts up to 25mph Thursday. Winds will then increase from the west-southwest Friday at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 89 70 91 / 10 20 0 10 MCO 70 92 71 95 / 10 30 0 10 MLB 70 87 70 89 / 10 20 0 10 VRB 70 88 68 91 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 10 SFB 70 93 70 95 / 10 30 0 10 ORL 71 93 72 95 / 10 30 0 10 FPR 68 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich LONG TERM...Heil AVIATION...Weitlich