226
FXUS62 KMLB 211342
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
942 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current-Tonight...Troughiness in the mid-levels will continue to
weaken and push seaward over the next 24 hours. Stout mid-level high
pressure over Texas will expand eastward with mid-level heights
rising across the GoMex and FL peninsula. Light morning winds at the
surface will become NERLY and increase 10-15 mph with higher
afternoon gusts; we may see some coastal locations average 15-20 mph
this afternoon for wind speeds. A diffuse sea breeze will develop
and push inland. Only modest deep layer moisture is present and our
precip chances will remain below normal with 20pct north/west of I-4
and highest up to 40pct across the Space and Treasure coasts.
Storm motion will be fairly slow and out of the north to
northeast. Lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds
locally will be the main threats. Activity diminishes this
evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast overnight
for ISOLD "low-topped" convection chances. Afternoon highs in the
U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices this afternoon more-or-less
seasonal in the M-U90s. Overnight mins generally in the L-M70s
while conditions remain humid.

There will be a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents at the beaches along Volusia and north Brevard counties,
while a Moderate risk continues southward through Martin County.

Additionally, minor coastal flooding remains a concern during high
tide. The highest water levels are forecast in the late morning
hours with a secondary peak in the late evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 723 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Showers continue to stream onshore this morning. Expect this
activity to persist into early afternoon, with VCTS included for
MLB southward after 14Z. By 18Z, showers with embedded lightning
storms are forecast to push inland, clearing interior locations by
around 0Z. Models suggest LEE remaining dry, so have forgone VCSH
or VCTS mention there. Showers and a few storms will be possible
once again along the coast overnight, with VCSH included after 1Z.
NE flow through the period, becoming breezy this afternoon, with
gusts up to 18-20kts, especially along the coast. Winds will
diminish towards sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Weekend... High pressure holds over the Southeast U.S.,
ensuring northeast winds 8-15 KT. Nearshore seas 3-4 FT building to
4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm. Scattered showers and
isolated lightning storms will persist over the next couple days.

Monday-Wednesday... Occasionally poor boating conditions. High
pressure pushes into the W Atlantic, allowing winds to turn from ENE
to E 10-15 KT. Seas 3-5 FT, except up to 6 FT well offshore. Rain
shower coverage becomes more isolated late Monday through mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  75  89  75 /  30  20  30  10
MCO  89  74  91  74 /  30  10  30  10
MLB  88  76  89  76 /  40  20  30  20
VRB  88  74  89  75 /  40  20  30  30
LEE  90  73  91  73 /  20   0  20   0
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  30  10  30   0
ORL  90  75  91  75 /  30  10  30   0
FPR  88  74  89  75 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Leahy