Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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114 FXUS62 KMLB 191152 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 752 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 750 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Onshore moving showers this morning. MVFR/IFR CIGs with passing SHRA and occasional TSRA. Have added MVFR CIGs until 14Z from MLB northward and across interior sites. Maintained VCTS across all sites today. Windy onshore flow with 15-20 KT and gusts 25-30 KT. Additional TSRA will be possible this afternoon but confidence and coverage is too uncertain to add VCTS in TAFs at this time. Winds decrease slightly overnight 10-12 KT across interior, with 10-15 KT and gusts 20-25 KT across the coastal sites. Kept VCSH across coastal sites tonight, but took VCSH out briefly overnight across the interior. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Current-Tonight...The local area will remain sandwiched between mid-level ridging over the Northeast US and a trough over the southwestern Atlantic today. Scattered showers drifting onshore prior to sunrise this morning will persist through the day and linger into tonight (PoPs 40-60%), with onshore flow maintaining higher PWATs to around 1.8-2". The pressure gradient between the aforementioned two features has led to breezy conditions, especially along the coast, overnight. Breezy to windy conditions will continue through the day today, with winds up to 20-25mph and gusts up to 30-35mph. The highest winds look to be this afternoon. Despite higher PWATs, drier air lingers in the mid and upper levels, which should limit the overall thunder threat today. However, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially this afternoon, with forecast MUCAPE values approaching 1500-2000J/kg over southern areas. Some lower cloud cover is forecast today, which should help temperatures to creep up into the upper 80s this afternoon. A few locations in the far interior could approach 90 degrees. Tonight, shower chances will continue, especially along the coast, with PoPs up to 30-60%. A few thunderstorms will remain possible, though confidence on any occurring is low. Breezy onshore flow will once again persist overnight, with winds 15-20mph along the coast and gusts to around 25mph. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s over the interior, while coastal areas remain in the upper 70s. Dangerous beach conditions are expected today due to a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents. In addition, high surf with breaking waves 5-8ft will lead to very rough conditions. Beachgoers should remain out of the water. Thursday-Friday...A trough, which NHC continues to monitor, maintaining a 20% chance of tropical formation as of the latest update, will approach the Southeast US coast on Thursday, then move onshore into Friday. Models continue to disagree on the exact location and timing of this feature moving onshore. However, they generally agree that it will be somewhere over north Florida/southern Georgia. Fortunately, models continue to support little in the way of development, keeping the feature as an open wave. Regardless of the final outcome, the local area is forecast to have another day of breezy onshore flow Thursday, before winds subside and back southeasterly on Friday. Showers and a few storms are forecast to continue through the period, with PoPs 40-60% Thursday and around 50% on Friday. While some areas will see multiple rounds of activity, overall rainfall totals are forecast to remain under 1". Temperatures will continue a warming trend through late week. High temperatures Thursday are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, then become lower 90s area-wide Friday. With humidity values remaining high, the Heat Risk will build each day. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...As the trough washes out over the eastern US, surface ridging is forecast to build into the western Atlantic. The ridge axis will extend towards the Florida peninsula, where it will linger into mid-week next week. Available moisture will remain high through the period, maintaining daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very high (likely) PoPs for this period. But, have capped PoPs at around 50% for the time being. However, onshore winds will veer progressively southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures, with highs reaching the mid-90s over the interior by late weekend and lingering muggy conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Today-Tonight...Buoy observations overnight tonight have shown seas up to around 9ft off of Ponce Inlet and just outside the nearshore Brevard zone. Have updated the forecast to include this, though models suggest seas diminishing slightly into this afternoon to around 6-7ft. Given that most models have not initialized correctly to account for the occurring 9ft seas, will need to monitor to see is this is true. Nonetheless, hazardous boating conditions will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and gusts to around 30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft tonight and could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday. Scattered showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible. Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching 10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue, however. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 87 76 / 40 60 50 50 MCO 88 76 88 75 / 50 40 50 20 MLB 87 77 87 76 / 60 60 60 30 VRB 88 76 87 76 / 60 50 60 30 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 40 30 40 20 SFB 88 75 88 75 / 50 40 50 30 ORL 88 76 88 76 / 50 40 50 30 FPR 87 76 87 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Watson