322
FXUS62 KMLB 211135
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
735 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs are forecast to prevail across the northern terminals
through late morning. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this
morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues
to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. Isolated
storms are forecast across the north into the afternoon and VCTS
is mentioned at MCO/ISM/TIX/MLB. Variable winds throughout the
morning become east into the afternoon increasing to around 8-12
kts.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Key Messages:

- An area of low pressure (AL92) will approach the FL/GA border
  today. NHC is monitoring the disturbance for tropical
  development.

- Locally heavy rains this morning in Volusia, Seminole, and Lake
  counties. After a break, additional storms possible there later
  this afternoon.

- Increasing heat and humidity near and south of Orlando today,
  with max heat index readings as high as 105F.

Today...Pressure gradient has weakened considerably over central
and southern sections of EC FL as trough axis assocd with AL92
approaches from the E/SE. The center of AL92 is about 200 miles
east of JAX early this morning and should continue a W/NW track
toward the FL/GA border today. A N-NE gradient wind persists
along the Volusia coast and out of an abundance of caution have
extended the High Surf Advisory there until 10 am to capture 1
more high tide at 8 am. The High Surf Adv was allowed to expire
elsewhere. Thereafter, winds will become uniformly S to SE as the
trough axis passes W/NW of the area. GOES Precip water sounding
shows deep moisture across northern half of FA which is supporting
scattered to numerous showers, with some heavy training bands.
Southern Volusia has received the bulk of the rain with 1-2"
locally 2.5" overnight. Additional rains will continue to push
onshore Volusia and well inland across Lake county this morning.
There should be a lull mid day followed by additional showers and
a better chance for lightning later this afternoon along and north
of the I 4 corridor.

South of Orlando, drier air will limit rain/storm coverage. But
more heating will allow temps to climb into the lower and even mid
90s. With dewpoints in the low and mid 70s, peak heat indices up to
105 are forecast. More clouds and morning rain will keep northern
sections to the mid and upper 80s.

Sat-Thu...Saturday marks the beginning of increasing rain chances
this weekend and into next week. Upper level ridging stays in
place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly influencing the
overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across the southeast
and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as a low pressure
system moves across the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will
remain southerly, backing southeast during the afternoon as the
sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly SSW through
midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of this period,
expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and storm-scale boundary
collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go from 60 percent
Saturday up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend and next week.
The NBM remains too high with PoPs (a common bias at least here in
FL) so continue to cap forecast values. Regardless, this stretch
of days could provide some additional, much needed rain for parts
of the area. Temperatures through the extended stay warm,
generally in the low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100-107.
Nighttime temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the
waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis
passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the
south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside
below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains
in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore
Brevard with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing
scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms will
persist this morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should
decrease in coverage. But additional late day storms over land may
reach the Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset.

Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early
next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts
this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze
near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft
becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week,
with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  91  75 /  70  30  60  60
MCO  91  77  92  76 /  50  30  60  50
MLB  89  77  90  76 /  30  30  60  60
VRB  91  76  90  75 /  30  30  60  40
LEE  89  77  94  76 /  60  30  60  50
SFB  89  76  92  75 /  50  30  60  50
ORL  90  77  92  76 /  50  30  60  50
FPR  91  76  90  75 /  30  30  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-570-
     572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law