Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
105
FNUS72 KMLB 211259
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Three Lakes - Dry Prairie...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
859 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A weak area of low pressure located offshore near the northeast
Florida coast continues to move west-northwest towards the
northeast Florida and southern Georgia coasts. Light and variable
winds this morning at the burn site are expected to increase into
the afternoon from the southeast as the sea breeze pushes inland
at 5-10mph. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast
this afternoon and early evening with the main lightning storm
hazards expected to be gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes,
and moderate rainfall. Patchy fog this morning with visibility
reductions to 1 mile or less has began to dissipate over the area
and will continue to dissipate into the mid-morning. Dispersion
values will be Fair to Generally Good. An afternoon high of 94
with heat index values near 100 degrees are forecast under partly
sunny skies.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy dense fog late in
the morning. Slight chance of showers early in
the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Chance of showers late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until
1600, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph late
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 44.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25 23 18 18 30 30 30 30 30
Weather cov.....PTY SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Temp............80 83 85 87 90 92 94 94 94
RH..............85 77 70 65 58 54 49 49 49
20 FT wind dir..W SW S S S S SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 8
20 FT wind gust.6 6 8 10 10 12 12 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SE
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 5 6 7 6 7 7
Dispersion idx..7 12 17 23 33 41 39 41 44
LVORI...........4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
2200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....49 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........30 20 20 17 18 16
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 10 10 10 0
LAL.............3 2 1 1 1 1
Temp............91 85 80 77 75 74
RH..............56 70 85 94 97 100
20 ft wind......SE 8 E 8 SE 6 SE 5 SE 3 SE 2
20 ft wind gust.13 13 12 9 7 7
Mix hgt (ft)....4300 1000 600 600 400 400
Transport wind..SE 9 E 13 SE 12 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8
Dispersion idx..49 6 5 5 4 4
LVORI...........1 3 5 6 6 8
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
morning. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the morning.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........12 5 25 43
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 30 30 60
LAL.............1 2 2 3
Temp............74 81 89 91
RH..............100 91 66 63
20 FT wind......SE 2G6 SE 3G7 SE 7G12 SE 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1800 3600 4100
Transport wind..SE 7 SE 8 SE 9 SE 10
Dispersion idx..3 18 38 48
LVORI...........9 4 3 1
$$
Forecaster...Fehling
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416483.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com