274
FXUS64 KMOB 272334
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period with
a few exceptions. Some localized MVFR ceilings brief periods of
LIFR to IFR visibilities will accompany scattered convection
through mid-evening southeast of I-65 all the way to the coast.
Brief periods of gusty winds up to 50 mph and hail up to ping pong
size may occur with the stronger storms. Patchy fog will also be
possible overnight mainly over portions of south central Alabama
into the western Florida Panhandle. Southwesterly winds 5 to 10
knots, a bit stronger near the coast, diminish and switch to a
light northwesterly flow tonight as a cold front moves through. A
northerly flow around 5 knots follows for Tuesday morning. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A somewhat broad upper trof pattern over the eastern half of the
CONUS amplifies through Tuesday, and embedded within this pattern
a series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region today
into the evening hours, along with a second set advancing into the
area on Tuesday. The remnants of an increasingly diffuse outflow
boundary appears to be located near the I-65 corridor based on
current radar and satellite loop, and a weak frontal boundary
extends from the Arkansas/Louisiana border into northern Alabama.
It`s not clear if whatever remains of the remnants of the outflow
boundary can manage to lead to any convective initiation as the
first series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region
through this evening. What looks more likely is that development
will occur along the frontal boundary which progresses into
interior portions of the forecast area through the afternoon, then
moves through the remainder of the area and into the marine area
overnight. The convective trends will need to be monitored. MLCAPE
values this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the
approaching front reach 2500-3000 J/kg, potentially around 3500
J/kg. Shear values remain on the low side, with 0-3 km bulk shear
of typically 20-30 knots along with correspondingly low helicity
values. DCAPE values are currently around 800 J/kg, and there is
the potential for an increase to around 1000 J/kg, possibly even
1500, late this afternoon. The best deep layer forcing associated
with the series of shortwaves and placement of the surface
boundaries appears to generally favor the portion of the area
along and east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon, which then
wanes this evening. For the rest of this afternoon, have gone with
chance pops roughly along and east of I-65 with slight chance
pops elsewhere. Pops taper off to dry conditions areawide tonight.
SPC has a slight risk of severe storms for portions of south
central Alabama stretching roughly along I-65 into southwest
Alabama along with a marginal risk for much of the remainder of
the area. The environment looks to favor some strong storms with a
severe storm or two possible. If severe storms form, damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be primary threats. Despite another
series of shortwaves set to move across the area on Tuesday,
drier air will have flowed into the area in the wake of the
frontal boundary and have kept pops out of the forecast. Lows
tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the
coast. Highs on Tuesday mostly range from 90-95. A high risk of
rip currents is in effect through tonight, then a moderate risk
follows for Tuesday. /29

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A predominately dry forecast is likely through mid to late week as
a broad trough over the eastern states helps to reinforce deep
layer dry air across our region. There is some uncertainty for mid
week regarding rain chances over the western half of the area.
The GFS indicates that just enough deep layer moisture may be
present as small shortwaves approach from the west to support a
chance of rain. However, the majority of the guidance remains dry,
so will only go with a slight chance of diurnally driven storms
in the western zones for Wed/Thu afternoon.

As we head into Friday through Monday, we will likely be
contending with several additional shortwaves as they move on the
northern and eastern periphery of a building upper level ridge
over Mexico. The timing of these shortwaves are always challenging
and there are certainly differences in the long range guidance.
However, the overall trend will be for increasing rain chances as
we go into the weekend due to the aforementioned shortwaves and
gradually increasing deep layer moisture. Temperatures will be
close to seasonal levels. 34/JFB

MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

No impacts are expected through the period with the exception of
higher winds and seas near storms. Light to moderate southwesterly
winds become northwesterly overnight as a cold front moves
through. A light diurnal flow pattern follows for Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails
for Thursday into the weekend. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  94  69  91  69  87  68  89 /  20  10   0  20  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   75  93  72  89  72  87  71  88 /  20   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Destin      75  90  73  88  72  87  72  88 /  20   0   0  10   0  10  10  20
Evergreen   68  93  65  90  64  87  64  90 /  50   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Waynesboro  66  93  66  88  65  85  64  89 /  20  10   0  20  20  20  10  20
Camden      66  91  64  88  64  85  64  88 /  30   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Crestview   69  95  65  93  65  90  64  92 /  40   0   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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