050
FXUS64 KMOB 152013
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

15.12Z upper air analysis shows a west northwest flow pattern at
high levels over the central Gulf coast, southwest of a H20/H30
upper low over the central Appalachians. Within the westerlies
aloft, a series of jet streak maxima (ranging 70-90kts) was
analyzed within the southern stream. Working down into the
mid/lower levels, forecasters see a complex low pressure system
situated from the Mid-South to southwest MS, with a few trough
axis spokes extending out from the low which are providing a focus
for ascent within a moist and modestly unstable local environment
characterized by SB Capes ranging 1000-2000 J/KG. A look at
15.12Z pwat values along the central Gulf shows highest values =>
1.87" (LIX) being right near 1 standard deviation above the
climatological means for mid September. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary front was draped west to east across the central Gulf
coast. Along the boundary, a wave of frontal low pressure was
analyzed along the MS Sound. Radar shows returns lifting
northward over the interior in response to the more southerly
component in layer flow east of the low/mid level low pressure
system, while returns near and south of the coast are tracking
more eastward along and south of the surface front. Considering
the players mentioned to enhance forced ascent, environmental
instability and sufficient deep layer moisture, showers and storms
are forecast to trend higher in areal coverage through the
remainder of the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at
this time, suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main
threats in storms today look to being efficient, locally heavy
rain rates and perhaps instances of flooding in those areas
subject to poor drainage where storms move over/or slowly across
the same areas. It is difficult to nail down just where the
heaviest rain axis develops as convection is just beginning. But
moving forward, forecasters anticipate a general area of excessive
rain/slight risk of localized flooding to be aligned along and
west of a line from Butler to Grove Hill to Atmore AL to Ft.
Walton Beach FL through tonight. Mobile and Baldwin Co`s may see
an increased threat of flooding rains.

The unsettled weather, with chance to likely PoPs, looks to
persist into Monday. This due to the front still mostly
stationary near the coast and the base of the upper low/trough
over the central Gulf coast favoring the eastward passage of mid-
level impulses to aid in convective initiation in a persistently
sufficient deep layer moist environment and daily instability.
Instances of excessive rains/isolated flooding cannot be ruled out
with a marginal risk of occurrence outlooked from the lower MS
River Valley to the MS Gulf coast, eastward to the western FL
Panhandle. Appears the chances of showers and storms begin to
taper off from north to south Monday night as the coastal front
begins to ease more to the southeast.

Lows in the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84 corridor to the upper
60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs on Monday 78 to 82
interior will be some 5 to 9 degrees below climo normals for mid
September. Lower half of the 80`s coast will be a few degrees
below normal. /10

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An upper low meanders over the eastern states through Thursday
then drifts down to over the Florida peninsula or the far
northeastern Gulf through this weekend. A weak frontal boundary
which extends near/along the coast of Louisiana to the western
Florida panhandle looks to become oriented over the marine area
Tuesday night, drift back into the coastal counties on Wednesday,
then move well offshore Wednesday night. A series of shortwaves
move across the area on Tuesday, and have continued with mostly
chance to good chance pops, with the higher pops near the coast
and the frontal boundary. The series of shortwaves weaken on
Wednesday, and while the front drifts inland, the frontal boundary
looks weaker and have opted to just have slight chance pops
generally east of I-65. Dry conditions are expected to prevail
for Thursday through Friday as the pattern favors a drier deep
layer northerly flow over the forecast area. There is the
potential for some improvement in deep layer moisture for this
weekend, but it`s not clear as to whether or not this will be
sufficient to support mention of pops, so have opted to continue
with a dry forecast at this time. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
lower to mid 80s, then highs for Wednesday through Sunday will
tend to be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows each night primarily range
from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. A low risk
of rip currents is expected through Thursday night. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Main impacts will primarily be for the first half of the week with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms, bringing brief strong wind
gusts and locally higher seas. Away from storms, winds expected to
be 10 knots or less and seas a foot or less. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  83  69  84  68  87  69  89 /  50  70  40  40  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   72  81  72  83  72  86  72  88 /  60  70  50  50  20  20   0  10
Destin      72  83  73  85  73  86  72  88 /  70  60  60  50  20  20   0  10
Evergreen   68  82  65  85  65  88  64  89 /  60  60  30  40  10  10   0  10
Waynesboro  68  79  66  82  65  86  66  87 /  60  70  20  30   0  10   0   0
Camden      67  79  65  81  64  85  63  86 /  60  50  20  30  10  10   0   0
Crestview   69  83  68  85  67  88  66  89 /  70  60  40  50  20  20   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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