Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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562 FXUS64 KMOB 141144 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 644 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 MVFR to localized IFR ceilings will impact interior portions of southwest and south central AL and the western FL panhandle through much of the morning before VFR conditions generally prevail into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also develop this afternoon and evening with the greatest coverage over interior areas. Localized lower ceilings and visibility restrictions can be expected near convection. Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR to IFR thresholds late tonight, mainly over interior areas. A VFR forecast otherwise continues for coastal locations, including the KMOB/KBFM/KJKA/KPNS terminals through the period. /21 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The remnant mid level low pressure system associated with Francine has slowly pivoted into the vicinity of northern MS and southwestern TN early this morning. The associated surface low has weakened considerably but is still discernible over western MS. A weak surface boundary extends eastward across MS and into portions of south central and southwest AL. Diffluence aloft on the southeastern periphery of the mid level low and convergence along the boundary allowed for bands of heavy rainfall to set up across portions of Wilcox, Monroe, and Conecuh counties Friday evening. Most of this activity diminished around and shortly after midnight, but there are still some lingering showers over our far northeastern counties early this morning. The mid level low pressure system will very slowly drift southeastward over the vicinity of northern MS and northwest AL today and tonight. Weak surface low pressure will become located somewhere in the vicinity of eastern MS or western AL today with the aforementioned surface boundary extending into central and southeastern portions of AL this afternoon before sinking south through much of our forecast area tonight. Deep layer moisture increases somewhat over interior parts of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL today along the vicinity of the boundary with precipitable water values forecast to rise to 1.6-1.8 inches. We do expect scattered convection to develop along the boundary today with the greatest coverage appearing to be oriented along our northern and northeastern counties. We may have to watch for training convection again today and cannot entirely rule out a heavy rainfall/flooding threat, particularly in the vicinity of Butler/Crenshaw counties in south central AL. Confidence was too low to issue a Flood Watch for these locations given that the bulk of guidance kept the axis of deeper moisture to the north and east of these locations today. The latest WPC guidance also keeps higher QPF oriented just north and east of these zones. High temperatures today are forecast to reach into the mid 80s over far northern portions of the area and generally in the upper 80s to near 90 over much of the rest of the CWA. Rain chances will continue across our forecast area tonight as deeper moisture advects in from the north with the mid level low moving a little further to the south/southeast and also with the boundary sinking into our forecast area. Deep layer moisture will continue to increase into the day Sunday along the base of the mid level low and the surface boundary that remains draped over our region. Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous in coverage across much of our area during the day Sunday with potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 2+" possible where heavier convection develops and we will need to monitor for localized flooding. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 60s over southeast MS and interior southwest AL and generally between 70-75 over southern parts of the area. Highs on Sunday should be slightly cooler with the increased rain chances, generally in the lower to mid 80s. A LOW rip current risk will be in place this weekend and likely into the upcoming week. /21 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through early next week as an elongated upper low lingers from east to west over the Southeastern US. This upper level pattern still looks to be rather complex with two main lows. The first upper low (remnants of Francine) will sink towards the Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday with the secondary upper low moving northward along the Carolina Coast. Down in the lower levels, a surface boundary and attendant frontal low will be moving across the area and out into the Gulf waters on Monday. This surface boundary combined with lower heights aloft and plenty of moisture will aid in the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area on Monday. This will likely be the highest rain chances that we see through the short and long term period. As we head into Tuesday, the surface front will continue to push further south over the Gulf waters as the main upper low lifts northeast and begins to phase with the secondary upper low over the Carolinas. Deep layer moisture will still be abundant on Tuesday which combined with the base of the trough axis over the area will help to support scattered showers and storms throughout the day. The pattern will begin to change towards the middle and latter parts of next week as the phased upper low amplifies over the Ohio Valley and upper ridging builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern will place the local area within a northwesterly to northerly flow aloft with surface high pressure nosing in from the north. As a result, a much drier air mass will likely move into the area on Thursday and Friday with mostly-rain free conditions anticipated at this time. High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through early next week with values ranging from the upper 70s well inland to the middle 80s at the beaches. Temperatures should begin to rise back into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s later in the week as upper level heights begin to increase. /14 MARINE... Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A light diurnal pattern will continue through the weekend, with offshore flow expected during the overnight and morning hours and onshore flow expected during the afternoon and evening hours. A generally light to moderate easterly flow will return during the early part of the week. Seas will remain low over the next several days. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 70 86 69 83 69 84 68 / 20 30 50 40 70 30 40 10 Pensacola 88 73 84 72 82 71 83 71 / 20 30 60 50 70 50 50 20 Destin 87 74 85 73 84 71 84 72 / 20 30 60 50 70 50 50 30 Evergreen 88 68 83 67 82 66 85 65 / 30 40 70 60 70 30 40 10 Waynesboro 87 67 83 66 79 66 83 64 / 40 20 60 40 70 20 30 0 Camden 85 68 80 66 79 64 81 63 / 40 50 70 70 70 30 30 10 Crestview 89 70 84 68 83 67 84 66 / 20 30 70 50 70 40 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob