205
FXUS64 KMOB 101100
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overall, VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this
afternoon as a frontal boundary pushes south. Best coverage will
be over coastal counties. Expect brief reductions in visibility
and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few stronger
storms capable of producing gusty winds are also possible. Storm
coverage will diminish during the evening hours. Southwesterly to
westerly winds of around 5 to 10 knots today will weaken and
become more northerly during the evening after the front passes
through. /96


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

An upper-level longwave trough will linger over the eastern US
through the period. Weak shortwave energy will quickly rotate
around this longwave throughout the day today, helping to push a
weak frontal boundary into the region later this morning. This
front will continue pushing southward throughout the day, moving
offshore during the evening hours. As the front enters the area
this morning, a few showers/storms may accompany it, although with
limited forcing and dry/subsident air still in place, coverage
should remain isolated as it moves through our northern
communities. By the afternoon, forcing/ascent is expected to
increase as shortwave energy begins moving overhead and the
surface boundary begins interacting with the northward propagating
seabreeze boundary. In addition, the environment is expected to
moisten (PWATs increasing from 1.1-1.3 inches this morning to
1.6-1.8 inches this afternoon) and become highly unstable (SBCAPE
values generally around 3000 J/kg, with a few spots exceeding 3500
J/kg). Therefore, expecting storm coverage to become more
scattered in nature, especially over our coastal counties where
PoPs increase to around 50 percent. Recent model guidance does
suggest that deep-layer shear may be a touch stronger than what
was depicted in yesterday`s runs (0-6kt shear now up to around 25
knots in spots). Still am anticipating pulse storms to be the
dominant storm type; initially developing along the frontal
boundary and/or sea breeze boundary and spreading across the area
via outflow boundary collisions. However, with shear being a bit
stronger, cannot rule out the development of a few multicell
clusters. Strong instability, steep low-level lapse rates, and a
dry layer aloft will also give way to DCAPEs over 1000 J/kg. This
would be supportive of a few strong to severe storms, especially
for storms that do manage to cluster. The primary threat for these
storms is gusty to damaging downburst winds, although a few
instances of quarter-sized hail cannot be ruled out in any of the
stronger cores. Due to this potential, the southern half of the
local area is under a marginal risk of severe storms for today.

Rain chances quickly diminish during the evening hours as the front
pushes offshore and instability decreases due to the loss of daytime
heating. We should remain dry on Tuesday as upper ridging builds in
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a surface high over the
Ohio River Valley expands southward.

Highs for both today and Tuesday will range from the upper 80s to
low 90s. Heat indices, however, will be much higher today due to dew
points in the low to mid 70s across the area. Heat indices today,
prior to storm development, will rise into the 98-105 degree range
areawide (remaining a few degrees below Heat Advisory criteria).
Drier air filters in on Tuesday, with afternoon dew points ranging
from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s along the coast. This should
help to keep heat indices close to actual temperatures. Lows tonight
will range from the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s along the coast.
A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the near term period.
/96

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The Short Term is a transitional period with this package. An upper
level shortwave trough moves over the Southeast, eventually stalling
over the southeastern Gulf/Caribbean. A surface low/circulation
begins to organize over the central/southern Gulf of Mexico, with
varying placement/strength of development indicated in the guidance.
Deeper moisture over the Gulf begins to shift north, with some
moving inland over coastal areas of the forecast area, as more
organized southerly flow develops over the Gulf. General northerly
deep layer flow over the Southeast will limit how far inland the
moisture flows. Enough moisture and instability is expected to bring
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas south of I-65.
Temperatures will see an uptick from the Near Term as heights rise.
High temperatures ranging from around 90 to low 90s are expected
Wednesday. Low temperatures ranging from the low 60s north of
Highway 84 to around 70 south of I-10 to along the coast Tuesday
night rise into the mid 60s well inland to low 70s along the coast
are expected Wednesday night.

A low risk of rip currents is expected mid week, but as an onshore
flow becomes more organized into the end of the week, the risk of
dangerous rip currents rises to moderate to high by Thursday
/16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The Extended continues to be a challenge. Energy in the stalled
upper trough organizes into a close system over the Gulf this
weekend, with the Gulf surface low/circulation moving north-
northwest over the Gulf towards the northwestern Gulf coast. The
latest guidance is advertising moderate to strong flow on the east
side of this circulation bringing deep layer moisture and increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the northwestern/central
Gulf coast the rest of the week through the weekend. Guidance has
been inconsistent with timing and path of this Gulf system, though.
With that, pinning down timing of possible water issues from the
showers and thunderstorms continues to be a challenge. The latest
guidance is trending later/further west than previous runs. Am
concerned that where the deep layer south/southeasterly flow does
impact the Gulf coast, there may be water issues due to possible
training cells and heavy rains. At this point, these issues are just
outside the timeframe of the current package. Will need to monitor.

Temperatures will see an upward trend into the weekend, with mid 90s
expected over inland areas Friday and Saturday. Moisture levels will
increase with a return of at least low level onshore flow and inland
movement of Gulf moisture. Heat Indices rise into the 100-105 degree
range for Friday and Saturday in response. Sunday will see a
downward trend in temperatures as increasing cloudiness and rain
coverage will drop temperatures to around seasonal norms.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will
persist through this evening, with offshore flow expected on Tuesday
in the wake of a front. A weak system will begin to develop by mid
week over the eastern Gulf, allowing for a light to moderate
easterly flow to develop for the latter half of the week. Seas are
also expected to build by late week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  68  90  67  91  69  94  72 /  50  30  10   0  20   0  20  10
Pensacola   92  71  91  71  91  73  92  76 /  50  30  10  10  20  10  30  20
Destin      89  73  89  73  90  75  90  78 /  50  40  10  10  20  10  30  30
Evergreen   92  65  89  62  91  65  95  69 /  40  20  10   0  20   0  20  10
Waynesboro  90  64  88  62  89  64  94  69 /  40  10   0   0  10   0  10   0
Camden      89  63  87  62  88  64  94  69 /  30  10   0   0  10   0  10   0
Crestview   95  68  92  64  94  67  95  71 /  50  30  10  10  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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