Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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320 FXUS64 KMOB 080707 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A dry and mild night continues across the region, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. An upper ridge remains anchored over the northern Gulf Coast, with an area of high pressure building just south of the coast. This will keep dry conditions in place through the weekend, as high pressure maintains its hold on the sensible weather pattern. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the period, with highs today warming into the lower to mid 90s. Despite weak northerly flow, temperatures on Sunday will warm even more as highs climb into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits Sunday afternoon, but should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (heat index >= 108 degrees). Overnight lows will be on the more mild side, with temps falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s. /73 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The ridge will begin to dampen Sunday night as an upper trough digs southward and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The forecast area will remain on the southern fridge of this trough, with flow aloft more zonal. Meanwhile, at the surface, a boundary will remain draped along the coast, with winds remaining from the north for most of the area. Moisture will be a bit more limited, though weak waves swinging around the base of the trough, along with surface convergence along the boundary, may be enough to initiate isolated to scattered convection Monday afternoon. The axis of the trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday, with a weak ridge building across the forecast area. This will limit rain chances, though isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the peak heating hours. /73 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The pattern becomes a bit messy Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a southern stream trough/low moves into the ArkLaTex region. The trough will slide southward through the day on Wednesday, with the forecast area remaining on the eastern periphery of the trough. This will shift flow aloft to more southerly, bringing an influx of low to mid level moisture across the area. As the closed upper low drifts southward over the Gulf of Mexico, surface cyclogenesis will occur, with the surface low moving to the northeast through the day on Thursday. This low will impact portions of the eastern Gulf Coast region during the latter part of the upcoming work week, though confidence on where this low moves is not very high. Regardless, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, becoming more numerous over our southern zones by the end of the week. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A light southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through today and much of the day Sunday. Flow becomes more westerly on Monday, with northerly flow expected for Tuesday. A weak system will begin to take shape by mid week, with light to moderate easterly flow expected for the latter half of the week . /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 71 93 73 93 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 30 30 20 20 Pensacola 91 74 92 77 91 74 90 75 / 0 0 0 10 50 40 30 30 Destin 89 76 89 78 90 76 89 77 / 0 0 0 10 40 50 30 40 Evergreen 93 66 96 71 92 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 40 20 20 20 Waynesboro 92 68 96 71 91 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 20 10 Camden 91 66 94 71 89 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 10 20 10 Crestview 95 66 96 70 95 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 40 20 30 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob