Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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717 FXUS64 KMOB 172117 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned over the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. A plume of deep moisture continues to slowly advect across portions of the western FL panhandle, southwest AL, and southeast MS along the western side of the ridge axis. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across this portion of our region within the moist and unstable environment this afternoon. A few cells have occasionally pulsed strong and have produced strong wind gusts of 40- 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. The plume of deep moisture will continue to pivot westward as the upper level ridge along the east coast continues to strengthen and expand. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening, with the best chance over southeast MS and far southwest AL. Convection should diminish overnight, although a few showers/storms could develop offshore late and approach the immediate coast toward daybreak. Will maintain low POPs Tuesday morning, mainly across southern portions of southeast MS and far southwest AL, before POPs decrease/shift westward with time Tuesday afternoon. Most areas will be more under the influence of the strengthening ridge axis by Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs on Tuesday generally range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A HIGH risk of deadly rip currents will continue through Tuesday. Surf will quickly build to 4-6 feet along area beaches tonight and up to 5-7 feet on Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory goes into effect starting tonight and will continue over the next few days. /21 && .SHORT and LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Upper ridging is in no rush to go anywhere as it remains generally parked across the southeastern U.S. through Friday. Ridging finally begins to break down as we head into the weekend with upper troughing digging in across the Great Lakes into Midwest states by Sunday. A typical diurnal cycle for this time of year is expected with afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in association with the sea- breeze boundary pushing inland. Best chances will remain confined across coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle any given day. Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90`s, perhaps locally pushing upper 90`s by late week into the weekend. Overnight lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70`s expected. A High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory also goes into effect starting late Monday night and lasts through Thursday afternoon. Surf heights will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this period. In terms of tropics, there`s a couple areas of interest to watch over the next week. The first is in association with newly designated PTC1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system will remain well to our southwest and the only impacts from it will continue to be increased surf heights through Thursday and rip currents through late week into the weekend. Late week into the weekend models continue to be divergent on their solutions for the southwest Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the system is further east than anticipated initially, which means the odds of it staying well east of the forecast area are increasing. Have maintained 30 to 50 percent PoPs for the forecast area the weekend into early next week, but could see this being a bit generous if these trends continue. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 NHC is initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as the broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche remain favorable for development into a tropical cyclone by midweek. The pressure gradient between this system and a broad ridge of high pressure extending across the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard will bring moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly flow and building seas to our marine area through early Thursday morning. We added southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound to the Small Craft Advisory starting 4 AM Tuesday and continuing through 7 PM Wednesday for easterly winds of 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our Gulf marine zones from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Thursday for these same wind speeds along with seas building to 6-9 feet. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 88 75 91 75 92 72 94 / 20 20 10 30 10 20 10 20 Pensacola 76 89 77 91 76 91 76 91 / 20 20 30 30 20 40 20 30 Destin 76 90 77 90 76 90 77 89 / 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 30 Evergreen 70 90 72 90 69 91 70 93 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 71 89 72 91 71 92 70 95 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 71 89 72 90 70 92 70 94 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 70 92 72 92 71 93 71 94 / 20 10 0 10 0 20 10 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob