136
FXUS64 KMOB 141719
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon; however,
confidence and coverage is too low to add mention to the TAFs. /73

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnant mid level low pressure system associated with Francine
has slowly pivoted into the vicinity of northern MS and southwestern
TN early this morning. The associated surface low has weakened
considerably but is still discernible over western MS. A weak
surface boundary extends eastward across MS and into portions of
south central and southwest AL. Diffluence aloft on the southeastern
periphery of the mid level low and convergence along the boundary
allowed for bands of heavy rainfall to set up across portions of
Wilcox, Monroe, and Conecuh counties Friday evening. Most of this
activity diminished around and shortly after midnight, but there are
still some lingering showers over our far northeastern counties
early this morning.

The mid level low pressure system will very slowly drift
southeastward over the vicinity of northern MS and northwest AL
today and tonight. Weak surface low pressure will become located
somewhere in the vicinity of eastern MS or western AL today with the
aforementioned surface boundary extending into central and
southeastern portions of AL this afternoon before sinking south
through much of our forecast area tonight. Deep layer moisture
increases somewhat over interior parts of southeast MS and
southwest/south central AL today along the vicinity of the boundary
with precipitable water values forecast to rise to 1.6-1.8 inches.
We do expect scattered convection to develop along the boundary
today with the greatest coverage appearing to be oriented along our
northern and northeastern counties. We may have to watch for
training convection again today and cannot entirely rule out a heavy
rainfall/flooding threat, particularly in the vicinity of
Butler/Crenshaw counties in south central AL. Confidence was too
low to issue a Flood Watch for these locations given that the bulk
of guidance kept the axis of deeper moisture to the north and east
of these locations today. The latest WPC guidance also keeps
higher QPF oriented just north and east of these zones. High
temperatures today are forecast to reach into the mid 80s over far
northern portions of the area and generally in the upper 80s to near
90 over much of the rest of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue across our forecast area tonight as
deeper moisture advects in from the north with the mid level low
moving a little further to the south/southeast and also with the
boundary sinking into our forecast area. Deep layer moisture will
continue to increase into the day Sunday along the base of the mid
level low and the surface boundary that remains draped over our
region. Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous in
coverage across much of our area during the day Sunday with
potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 2+"
possible where heavier convection develops and we will need to
monitor  for localized flooding. Lows tonight range from the mid to
upper 60s over southeast MS and interior southwest AL and generally
between 70-75 over southern parts of the area. Highs on Sunday
should be slightly cooler with the increased rain chances, generally
in the lower to mid 80s. A LOW rip current risk will be in place
this weekend and likely into the upcoming week. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through early
next week as an elongated upper low lingers from east to west over
the Southeastern US. This upper level pattern still looks to be
rather complex with two main lows. The first upper low (remnants
of Francine) will sink towards the Gulf Coast on Monday and
Tuesday with the secondary upper low moving northward along the
Carolina Coast. Down in the lower levels, a surface boundary and
attendant frontal low will be moving across the area and out into
the Gulf waters on Monday. This surface boundary combined with
lower heights aloft and plenty of moisture will aid in the
development of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the
area on Monday. This will likely be the highest rain chances that
we see through the short and long term period. As we head into
Tuesday, the surface front will continue to push further south
over the Gulf waters as the main upper low lifts northeast and
begins to phase with the secondary upper low over the Carolinas.
Deep layer moisture will still be abundant on Tuesday which
combined with the base of the trough axis over the area will help
to support scattered showers and storms throughout the day. The
pattern will begin to change towards the middle and latter parts
of next week as the phased upper low amplifies over the Ohio
Valley and upper ridging builds into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This pattern will place the local area within a
northwesterly to northerly flow aloft with surface high pressure
nosing in from the north. As a result, a much drier air mass will
likely move into the area on Thursday and Friday with mostly-rain
free conditions anticipated at this time.

High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through
early next week with values ranging from the upper 70s well inland
to the middle 80s at the beaches. Temperatures should begin to
rise back into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s later in
the week as upper level heights begin to increase. /14



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  86  69  83  69  84  68  87 /  30  50  40  70  30  40  10  20
Pensacola   73  84  72  82  71  83  71  86 /  30  60  50  70  50  50  20  30
Destin      74  85  73  84  71  84  72  86 /  30  60  50  70  50  50  30  30
Evergreen   68  83  67  82  66  85  65  88 /  40  70  60  70  30  40  10  20
Waynesboro  67  83  66  79  66  83  64  86 /  20  60  40  70  20  30   0  10
Camden      68  80  66  79  64  81  63  84 /  50  70  70  70  30  30  10  10
Crestview   70  84  68  83  67  84  66  88 /  30  70  50  70  40  50  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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