069
FXUS64 KMOB 041236
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
714 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
A few showers near the coast with very localized MVFR conditions
early this morning, otherwise mainly VFR conditions for most of
the area this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Chance
for precipitation increases from the northwest late this afternoon
and evening as an area of organized convection moves southeast
across the area. Localized IFR ceilings can be expected in and
near showers and storms. A few of the storms could bring strong,
gusty winds. Surface winds will primarily be southeast to south
at 5 to 10 knots today and k knots tonight. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We will continue to see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwave
disturbances moving in a west-northwest flow aloft to aid in the
trigger for mainly diurnal convection over the next several days.
A few showers and storms, the remnants of one of these
disturbances, are moving east across the forecast area during the
predawn hours this morning. This activity could last into the
morning daytime hours on Tuesday, especially for our eastern and
southern counties. Another convective system (associated with the
next shortwave feature) has developed over Oklahoma early this
morning, and will be the next system to drop east-southeast toward
our area today and this evening. CAMs continue to show this MCS
CS pushing across the ArkLaTex region this morning, and moving
fairly quickly across Louisiana southern Mississippi in the
afternoon, with remnants moving into southwest Alabama this
evening before dissipating over the area by around midnight or
just thereafter during the predawn hours Wednesday. It still
appears that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with this
system today, which could bolster a better threat for strong to
severe storms this afternoon SPC has a SLIGHT severe threat just
to the west of our forecast area for today and tonight, with a
MARGINAL severe threat over our western area (west of I-65), so a
strong to severe storm or two could be possible this afternoon or
evening. Yet another impulse will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area again on Wednesday. Highs today will generally
be in the upper 80s across most of the area (low to mid 80s at the
coast) and then slightly warmer (in the upper 80s to lower 90s
inland and mid to upper 80s coastal) on Wednesday. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s
closer to and along the coast. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Similar pattern continues through the short term period, but
models do indicate the potential for a stronger shortwave aloft to
move across our area and Thursday morning. This will result in a
less diurnal patter, with chances for showers and storms remaining
higher Wednesday night, and continuing into Thursday. SPC just has
general thunderstorms forecast for our entire area Wednesday
night, but with the strength of the shortwave energy aloft there
could again be a few strong to briefly severe storms (especially
Wednesday evening/overnight) and again Thursday afternoon when
instabilities are greatest. We will continue to monitor for this
potential. Rain chances will be lower on Thursday night, and
mainly confined to coastal locations. Lows both Wednesday and
Thursday nights will range from lower 70s inland to middle 70s
down along the coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to be mainly
in the mid to upper 80s, but a few lower 90s possible over inland
areas. DS/12


LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper pattern changes during the early part of the long term
period, with an upper low developing over the Great Lakes region
and a large upper trough developing over the eastern third of the
CONUS. This pattern will allow a weak cold front to drop south
across the area on Friday, with somewhat drier air behind the
front. With the lower dewpoints and reduced deep layer moisture,
rain chances will generally be lower in the long term even with a
somewhat active northwesterly upper level flow persisting. Rain
chances will mainly be diurnal in nature, with a 20 to 30 percent
chance of rain each day. Daytime highs will continue to be in the
upper 80s and lower 90s through the period. With the lower
dewpoints, nighttime lows will be a little cooler Friday and
Saturday nights, with mid to upper 60s over most inland locations
and lower 70s along the coast. Sunday night min temps will generally
be in the lower 70s inland and middle 70s for coastal locations. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

No significant marine impacts are expected throughout the week.
Light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts westerly
late in the week. /22 MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  73  88  73  88  72  93  69 /  50  20  30  30  50  20  20  10
Pensacola   86  76  87  75  87  75  92  71 /  50  20  30  40  50  20  30  10
Destin      86  76  86  76  87  76  90  72 /  40  20  30  30  50  20  30  20
Evergreen   89  68  91  70  88  70  91  63 /  50  20  40  40  70  20  20   0
Waynesboro  88  69  92  70  88  70  91  65 /  60  30  30  50  40  20  20   0
Camden      88  69  91  69  87  70  89  63 /  50  30  30  50  50  20  20   0
Crestview   89  69  90  70  90  70  94  65 /  50  20  30  30  70  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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