Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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100 FXUS64 KMOB 150501 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions were noted across the area at the time of issuance this evening. Ceilings will begin to lower after midnight to MVFR/IFR thresholds mainly across interior portions of the area with VFR conditions prevailing along the coast. VFR to MVFR ceilings will linger during the day Sunday as scattered to numerous showers and storms develop. Light and variable winds overnight become light and easterly/southeasterly on Sunday. /14 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The remnant low from Francine continues to meander slowly over northern Mississippi this afternoon and will continue this pattern through the next 24 hours or so. An axis of convergence stretching from the surface low, southeastward through southern Alabama was generating isolated to scattered showers, with more coverage noted over eastern Alabama, lingering from a heavier band from this morning. The low will continue to pivot over Mississippi through the next couple of days, keeping daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Through the rest of the day and into the overnight hours, expect shower/storm coverage to remain isolated to scattered, aided by diurnal heating. This activity will diminish somewhat this evening, but isolated thunderstorms will remain possible. Seasonably warm temperatures will also persist, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s by daybreak on Sunday. The coverage of showers/storms will increase during the day on Sunday, as the low slides to the south and the convergence axis slides further south. Forecast guidance is not very consistent on where this axis will eventually stall, so confidence on where the heaviest rain occurs is low. As of now, storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with some locally higher amounts of up to 3 inches. There is a signal for an axis of heavy rain to develop over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama, though these areas have a FFG >3 inches an hour. Ensemble probabilities are very low that we will exceed these values, and even less for our 3 and 6 hour FFG. Therefore, the potential for flooding would be confined to those areas where rainfall rates are very high or in our traditionally poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours Sunday, though the coverage should diminish. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly below norms, with the precip and cloud cover, and highs will only climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /73 SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Quasi-stationary front becomes stalled near the coast into Monday. With this feature nearby, the weather pattern remains unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and storms to open up the work week. The front is progged to be aligned west to east from coastal LA to across the northern FL Peninsula by Tuesday. Along the front, a wave of frontal low pressure is positioned over the AL/western FL coastal waters. With the feature nearby, the forecast calls for a chance to likely PoPs Tuesday, generally south of Hwy 84. The better PoPs in the range are drawn closer to the coast. Tuesday night, a slight chance to chance PoPs look to become focused over the open Gulf waters with PoPs lowering to 10% or less over the land zones. With the clouds and increased rain chances, coolest daily highs 77 to 81 across and north of the Hwy 84 corridor Monday will be well below climo by some 5 to 10 degrees. Lower half of the 80s, southward to the coast Mon will be below normal by some 3 to 6 degrees. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s north of I-10 to lower 70s coast will be a few degrees above normal on average. /10 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The latest 14.12Z global models remain consistent on showing the upper level geo-potential height field undergoing amplification by mid week and persisting into the start of the weekend. Trough axis becomes aligned from near the OH River Valley, southward to across FL with narrow upper ridge extending from the Rio Grande Valley, nosing northward into the Mid MS River Valley. On the southwest flank of the upper trough, drier deep layer air overspreads the central Gulf coast, favoring what is appearing to be a rainfree pattern Thursday thru Saturday. Highs trend upward and slightly above climo numbers, ranging 86 to 91. Lows in the lower/mid 60s interior to 67 to 72 closer to the coast. /10 MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Main impacts the next few days will come from thunderstorms, bringing brief strong wind gusts and locally higher seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 84 69 82 69 84 68 86 / 20 40 40 70 40 40 10 10 Pensacola 74 83 72 82 71 83 72 86 / 20 60 60 70 50 50 10 20 Destin 74 84 72 83 72 84 73 86 / 20 60 70 70 60 50 20 20 Evergreen 69 82 67 82 66 85 65 88 / 20 60 70 70 40 30 10 10 Waynesboro 68 82 67 79 65 82 64 86 / 20 60 40 70 20 20 0 10 Camden 68 79 66 77 64 81 63 85 / 40 60 70 60 30 20 0 10 Crestview 69 84 68 82 66 84 67 86 / 20 60 70 80 50 60 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob