844
FXUS64 KMOB 031743
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail expect for temporary reductions in
ceiling and visibility this afternoon and early evening in and
near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds will
remain generally out of the south to south-southeast at 5 to
10 knots. /22

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An uncertain yet potentially convectively active near term lies
ahead today through Tuesday. Several weak shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow aloft are expected to transit the area
during the period. The first of these is moving through this
morning which has been responsible for an ongoing complex of
thunderstorms pushing across southeastern LA into southeastern MS.
CAMs have not handled this feature well at all, with a majority
of them not even having any convection ongoing in this area right
now. With that said, have opted to bump PoPs this morning across
far southeastern MS into southwestern AL in anticipation that this
feature transits the aforementioned area.

As we head into the rest of today, more typical afternoon pulse-
type convection can be expected by late morning into the afternoon
and early evening hours. High temperatures rise into the upper
80`s to near 90 for most spots. As we head into tonight, the next
shortwave will begin to approach the area sometime during the
overnight hours. It seems reasonable to expect another MCS to be
ongoing with this feature as it pushes across the ArkLaTex this
evening, likely persisting into the overnight as it comes across
LA/MS/AL. There is a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of this
system so it`s difficult to get into any details on timing or
intensity at this point. Lows tonight will fall into the lower
70`s for most spots.

The uncertainty continues into Tuesday as another shortwave
approaches from the west-northwest by late afternoon into early
evening. Once again, potential exists for an MCS to track across
the area, but details on timing and intensity are difficult to
assess at this time. It does appear deep layer shear will be a bit
stronger for the Tuesday system, which could bolster a better
threat for strong to severe storms. At a minimum anticipate the
usual late morning into afternoon/evening pulse type thunderstorms
for the entire forecast area. Afternoon highs once again top out
in the upper 80`s to near 90. A Moderate risk of rip currents
today drops to a low risk for tonight into Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  89  73  89  73  90  71  93 /  10  30  10  30  20  40  20  30
Pensacola   76  88  75  87  76  88  74  93 /  10  30  10  30  30  50  20  30
Destin      77  85  76  87  76  88  76  90 /  10  30  10  30  30  50  20  30
Evergreen   70  90  68  91  70  89  68  92 /  30  40  10  40  40  60  20  20
Waynesboro  70  90  70  92  70  90  68  92 /  30  40  10  40  40  40  20  20
Camden      70  90  69  90  69  88  68  89 /  30  40  10  40  40  50  20  20
Crestview   69  90  68  91  70  91  69  95 /  10  30   0  30  20  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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