760
AWUS01 KWNH 100620
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-101118-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle, Texas South
Plains, and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100618Z - 101118Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely through at least 11Z as
areas of deep convection continue to develop and move slowly along
an axis from Amarillo to Wichita Falls to near Abilene.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues.  Recent radar mosaic
imagery denote continued deep convective development across
portions of the Panhandle east-southeastward through western North
Texas.  A weak surface boundary and robust difluence aloft
downstream of mid/upper disturbance across the southern Rockies
continues to promote ascent of a weakly to moderately unstable
airmass across the region (with instability strongest across north
Texas that have not yet been convectively overturned).
Additionally, weak low-level easterly flow continues to aid in
advection and maintenance of a very moist airmass (upper 60s to
70F dewpoints and 1.8 inch PW values) toward areas of ongoing deep
convection.  Weak steering flow aloft continues to result in slow
movement of individual cells, with 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
estimated per MRMS.  This axis of precipitation has been fairly
active despite widespread convective overturning/stabilization
earlier across large portions of the Texas South Plains.

The ongoing scenario will continue to evolve slowly and pose a
flash flood risk across the discussion area through at least 11Z.
Low-level stabilization is gradually resulting in more limited
opportunity for heavier rainfall to materialize, although this
process will take time to unfold and eliminate flash flood
potential on a widespread basis (per models/00Z HREF).  FFG
thresholds (ranging from 1 inch/hr in the Panhandle to 2.5
inches/hr across western north Texas) are being exceeded
occasionally - further suggestive of flash flood potential for the
next few hours.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36070211 35450020 34409803 33609715 32749694
            32419824 32700036 33840163 34240242 34750314
            35520345 35960291