299
AWUS01 KWNH 092238
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-100401-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...central Colorado into northern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092237Z - 100401Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly
widespread through the evening and move slowly across the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristos into the High Plains of CO/NM.
Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which could result in 1-2"
of rain with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic the past hour or two has
shown a rapid expansion of higher reflectivity comprising more
widespread showers and thunderstorms. The focus of this activity
has been generally across the higher terrain of the Front Range,
Sangre de Cristos, and Jemez Mountains where SBCAPE has climbed
above 2000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. This
instability is combining with PWs of 0.7 to 0.9 inches, around the
90th percentile for the date, to produce an environment easily
supporting this intensifying convection. Low-level moist advection
on post-frontal easterly flow is resupplying moisture and
upsloping into the terrain to further support the environment for
heavy rainfall producing convection.

As the afternoon progresses, the high-res CAMs, although currently
underplaying the coverage of convection, suggest thunderstorms
will expand even further and intensify, with the HREF indicating
the probabilities for 1"/hr rain rates reaching above 50% by this
evening. These storms will continue to form in a pulse environment
characterized by minimal bulk shear, so lifespans should be
generally short except where immediately adjacent development
occurs on terrain features, outflow boundaries, or storm
collisions. Additionally, mean cloud layer winds are extremely
weak at just around 5 kts, so storm motions will remain slow and
chaotic. These slow storm motions will support rainfall that could
exceed (40-50% chance) 2 inches in a few locations. Where these
intense rates linger, where multiple rounds occur, or if a storm
moves across a sensitive terrain feature, burn scar, or urban
area, instances of flash flooding could result.

Eventually, convection is expected to congeal and move east off
the terrain this evening. Depending on how this evolves into
tonight, additional MPDs may be needed to address that threat as
well.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39500496 39220431 38130378 37070377 35780442
            35350501 35260616 35630677 36100658 36600626
            37240605 37720604 39170628