Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
781 AWUS01 KWNH 111557 FFGMPD FLZ000-112200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0422 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1155 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111554Z - 112200Z Summary...Continued advection of deep moisture across the southern Florida Peninsula will maintain additional rounds of heavy rainfall through the afternoon hours. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour with the strongest convection, especially over areas with saturated grounds, could lead to additional instances of flooding. Discussion...After a brief weakening trend from the heavier rainfall earlier this morning, convection is growing over the nearshore waters of the southwestern Florida coast in an environment with anomalous PWS on the order of 2.25-2.50+ inches. This is slowly moving in a general northeasterly direction, and will result in higher rainfall rates from Sarasota to Marco Island. The ongoing stratiform rain for this region will once again become more convective in nature as the next surge of deep tropical moisture moves in, supported by a 500mb vort max. Widespread 1-2 inch totals have already been observed so far today. There is also the potential for some episodes of convective training across the metro areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, although the potential for excessive rainfall here is generally lower than for the metro areas near the southwestern coast. There have been some instances of convective training just off the eastern coast, and these could cause some flooding issues if they develop over the urban areas of South Florida this afternoon. The latest high-res model guidance suite continues to depict 3-6 inch QPF maxima in the general vicinity of Punta Gorda/Fort Myers/Naples through about 6pm local time, with the latest HRRR guidance likely overdone with the extent of these higher totals. The guidance generally depicts 1 to locally 2 inches for the eastern portions of the MPD area. Instances of flooding will be possible where higher rainfall rates persist over any given area. Hamrick ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 27568251 27458210 27168185 27018162 26758121 26708085 26698071 26728059 26748047 26838022 26757998 26227999 25738006 25328018 25068053 25088105 25188127 25488145 25808172 26168197 26418219 26788244 27258266