Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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312 AWUS01 KWNH 090943 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 542 AM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...southern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, far southeastern Kansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 090942Z - 091500Z Summary...Another 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected through 15Z across southern Missouri this morning. Areas of flash flooding (locally significant) remain likely. Discussion...A mature MCS continues to make its way through the discussion are this morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue with a warm-advection regime downstream of a surging linear segment near Pittsburg, Kansas, with heavy rain and areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates noted from Nevada to Bolivar to West Plains. The aforementioned axis was oriented favorably for training while embedded in a steep-lapse-rate (~7-7.5 C/km) environment with abundant moisture (2+ inch PW values). Convergence on the nose of 30-kt westerly 850mb flow also continues to support ongoing activity, and multiple cell mergers were noted per radar mosaic imagery over the past hour or so. Models/observations continue to support a west-to-east translation of ongoing convection over the next few hours, with heavy rainfall (and local 2+ inch/hr rain rates continuing). 2-4 inch totals are also likely through 15Z with this activity. There is a risk of training convection eventually making it to southeast Missouri/far northeastern Arkansas during this timeframe as well. The back end of the heavier rainfall will likely approach the region from the west in tandem with a convectively induced mid-level shortwave trough currently centered near Hutchinson. On its current trek, the trough should clear most of the discussion area, reaching theJefferson City area by mid-morning (around 15Z). Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38479386 37909072 36928961 36118978 35689065 36679316 37149549 37469615 38069609 38469545