Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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097 AWUS01 KWNH 032010 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040009- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northeastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 032009Z - 040009Z Summary...A forward-propagating MCS will continue to pose an isolated flash flood threat across the discussion area through 01Z. Discussion...Flash flood potential continues on an isolated basis despite appreciable forward movement of a linear convective complex extending from roughly 30 miles east of Fort Smith, AR to near De Queen, AR to Paris, TX. Parts of this line were moving at an estimated 60 mph at times. Despite the forward movement, an impressive 1.72 inch hourly total was noted at Sallisaw, OK earlier with this complex, and a couple of instances of flash flooding were reported near Fort Smith. MRMS hourly estimates of 1-2 inch totals continue particularly across west-central Arkansas with this complex, and although FFG thresholds are generally higher than the rain rates (around 2-2.5 inch/hr), recent observations and models suggest that at least an isolated flash flood risk should continue in the short term - especially in low-lying/sensitive and/or urbanized areas. Over time, this complex is expected to persist while migrating southeastward across Arkansas and northern Louisiana over the next 3-5 hours. An isolated flash flood risk will continue with this activity. Somewhat greater concern could develop on the southwestern flank of this activity especially if a southward-moving outflow boundary can stall and focus convection in a localized area for longer than an hour. This risk is highest near the ArkLaTex and portions of northern Louisiana. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36319180 35939040 34139068 32909124 32449268 32659458 33039515 33639502 34119428 34869362 36239309