Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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197 AWUS01 KWNH 090452 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091051- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Kansas, southern Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 090451Z - 091051Z Summary...Flash flooding remains likely across the discussion area through 11Z. Significant impacts are expected especially across southwestern Missouri. Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion area. The areas of potential foci for heavy rainfall risk exist with 1) a rapidly evolving MCS from near Dodge City east-northeastward to Salina, where torrential rain and occasional cell mergers/slow movement have resulted in 2 inch/hr estimates at times and 2) with lingering convection across southwestern Missouri near Springfield and just north of Joplin. The pre-convective environment is plenty moist/unstable, with both 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7-2.1 inch PW values focused along and just north of a stationary boundary near the KS/OK border. Low-level convergence (on the northern extent of 25-40 kt south-southwesterly 850mb flow over Oklahoma) continues to provide a focus for convective development - especially from near Salina to near Springfield, MO - out ahead of an intense southwestern KS MCS. The overall regime for ascent/convection from central KS to southwestern Missouri is not expected to change much over the next 6 hours. Areas of heavier rainfall are expected to train in these areas and produce potential for multiple hours of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. Furthermore, ground conditions are sensitive in southwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas where 1-3 inch/hr totals were observed yesterday night and additional 2-3 inch amounts were observed in southwestern Missouri today. These areas could experience significant flash flooding, with long-duration thunderstorm risk potentially resulting in an additional 3-6 inch totals before the southwestern KS MCS moves through later tonight. Farther upstream, the southwestern KS MCS was maturing and surging to the east due to upscale growth and increasing mid-level organization. Areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates were observed/estimated along portions of the MCS that have resulted in flash flood impacts in/near Garden City. More isolated flash flood potential exists due to the forward-propagating nature of the storms, although local cell mergers and training could continue to promote 2 inch/hr rain rates at times. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38889631 38129252 36879116 36359127 36289212 36539413 37069733 37039989 37550063 38280020 38809878