566
AWUS01 KWNH 080522
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-080921-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 AM EDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080521Z - 080921Z

Summary...Widespread convection (and several cell mergers) were
resulting in areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates despite relatively
fast cell movement.  Isolated flash flood potential is possible
through at least 09Z.

Discussion...Robust convection continues to move quickly
east/southeastward across eastern Kansas currently.  The storms
are at least slightly elevated, but organized along a couple of
forward-propagating linear segments while leveraging steep lapse
rates aloft (~8C/km).  Strong southwesterly 850mb flow was also
likely aiding in sufficient convergence for strong updrafts.  The
convection continues to migrate southeastward along NNW/SSE
oriented instability gradient located just east of the KS/MO
border.  Multiple cell mergers were encouraging spotty 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates at times in a few areas - particularly in
northeastern Kansas.  These rates were just shy of FFG thresholds
(generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range), suggesting only an
isolated flash flood threat in low-lying and/or urban areas in the
short term.

The ongoing flash flood scenario should continue for a few more
hours.  Convection should persist as long as propagating
cells/linear segments maintain southeastward motion and leverage
steep lapse rates along the eastern extent of a central Plains
EML.  Instability wanes with eastward extent, and the expectation
is that convection should also weaken especially east of a line
generally from Sedalia to Springfield.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40029472 39349344 38119301 37509297 37349348
            37309586 38239666 39879640