Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
566 AWUS01 KWNH 080522 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-080921- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080521Z - 080921Z Summary...Widespread convection (and several cell mergers) were resulting in areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates despite relatively fast cell movement. Isolated flash flood potential is possible through at least 09Z. Discussion...Robust convection continues to move quickly east/southeastward across eastern Kansas currently. The storms are at least slightly elevated, but organized along a couple of forward-propagating linear segments while leveraging steep lapse rates aloft (~8C/km). Strong southwesterly 850mb flow was also likely aiding in sufficient convergence for strong updrafts. The convection continues to migrate southeastward along NNW/SSE oriented instability gradient located just east of the KS/MO border. Multiple cell mergers were encouraging spotty 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates at times in a few areas - particularly in northeastern Kansas. These rates were just shy of FFG thresholds (generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range), suggesting only an isolated flash flood threat in low-lying and/or urban areas in the short term. The ongoing flash flood scenario should continue for a few more hours. Convection should persist as long as propagating cells/linear segments maintain southeastward motion and leverage steep lapse rates along the eastern extent of a central Plains EML. Instability wanes with eastward extent, and the expectation is that convection should also weaken especially east of a line generally from Sedalia to Springfield. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40029472 39349344 38119301 37509297 37349348 37309586 38239666 39879640