Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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484 FXUS63 KMPX 161121 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 621 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the mid-upper 80s to continue through Wednesday. - A more active pattern is expected for the second half of this week into the weekend with the best chances for rain right now coming Thursday/Thursday night and Friday night into Saturday. - Heavy rain is currently the greatest potential hazard, though a severe potential is slowly starting to emerge for the two active periods as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Conditions definitely feel muggy when stepping outside of the forecast office early this morning. Even with much of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing mostly clear skies, current temperatures remain in the upper-60 and low-70s with dew points in the mid-60s. Off to our west, a mid-level low is producing a few thunderstorms across the Dakotas. This low is expected to track to the NNE throughout the course of today which will interact with a stationary boundary located southern Manitoba. As this interaction occurs, development for rain showers and storms are expected across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Hi-Res guidance seems to agree with this thinking thus removed PoPs across central and southern MN and western WI for this afternoon. With high pressure continuing to maintain its grip over the Great Lakes region, skies should be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s for both today and Tuesday. CAMs are starting to pick up on some potential pre-dawn convection especially across western MN Tuesday morning. May need to increase PoPs should trends continue over the next few hourly runs. We still expect this dry pattern to shift by mid-week as h5 ridging to our east erodes and allows low pressure building near the Rockies. One noticeable change from the last two runs of the NBM has been the timing and coverage for rainfall on Wednesday. Coverage has decreased and timing has slowed more to Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on this lows track and the timing, some storms may feature a small chance of severe weather given instability and shear on the forecast soundings. Rain and storm chances continue on Friday and into the weekend but will need to wait until guidance has better agreement on track before discussing direct impacts. What is known now is confidence continues to increase that this weekend could potentially be a wet one. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to cool back down to at or just below normal late this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Continued quiet weather with FEW/SCT250 for cloud cover today, alongside winds beginning lighter at around 130-150, shifting 160-180 and increasing to around 10kts with occasional gusts to 20-23kts mainly in Minnesota with a lower chance in western Wisconsin. Winds drop back after 00z with another relatively quiet night, with AXN having a slim chance for -SHRA or -TSRA which likely stays to the north. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA likely. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...TDH