901
FXUS63 KMPX 051057
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon with highest chances generally along and north of
  I-94. Damaging winds and hail are possible with any stronger
  storms that develop.

- Breezy northwest winds are expected through the end of the
  week with gusts of 35-40 MPH possible Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The last of the showers from yesterday are winding down across
western Wisconsin early this morning with clear skies back to the
west. Today will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
with a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and
small hail. This threat can be broken down into two separate
regions; one across central/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
(where the SPC SWODY1 Marginal Risk lies) and another across western
and southern Minnesota. A second, stronger wave associated with the
cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will move across
the region. Winds at the base of this trough (across the eastern
Dakotas into southern Minnesota) will be very strong with speeds
ranging from 40-50kts at 850mb to 70-80kts at 500mb. These winds
will likely mix down with any showers that develop and pose a threat
for damaging winds. While afternoon convection is possible, the
biggest question is how dry air in the low levels would impact the
amount of rain actually making it to the surface with these winds.
After much collaboration with neighboring offices, decided the best
way to handle this threat was a Wind Advisory. Further north, the
set up is a little more typical and straightforward as there is
better moisture to work with. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will
develop by this afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates allowing
for a damaging wind and hail threat. The showers and thunderstorms
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. These should not be
as efficient rain producers as we`ve seen the past few days, so QPF
amounts are only around 0.10-0.25".

The remainder of the work week should be dry with gusty northwest
winds continuing on the backside of this system as it pulls away
over the northern Great Lakes. Gusts of 30-40 MPH are expected
Thursday with things trending down a bit Friday as the low continues
to move eastward. Relatively dry and pleasant weather is
expected through the remainder of the period with only a low
chance for showers on Saturday. Looking into next week, warmer
weather returns with highs back in the 80s by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Primary concern is scattered showers and storms that are
expected to develop across much of the region this afternoon,
especially from KSTC and KRWF and points east. Cells should be
fairly scattered in nature, and generally last less than an hour
at a time at a given location, but could pack gusty winds
greater than 40 kts and small hail when they move through. West
winds will also be gusty outside of thunderstorms, with
occasional gusts as high as 30kts through the afternoon. Storms
will taper off toward sunset, but occasional gusts expected to
continue overnight.

KMSP...Scattered storms expected in the vicinity 20Z through
01Z, with one or two impacts at the terminal possible through
this time. Storms could produce small hail and gusts greater
than 40 kts. These impacts should be brief in nature, generally
less than an hour, possibly even 15 minutes or so. Expect storms
to push east after sunset. Outside of storms west winds will
gust as high as 30 kts this afternoon and evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-
     Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...DPH