Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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315 FXUS63 KMPX 270826 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 326 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this morning with a few stronger storms possible across far southern Minnesota this afternoon. - Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A smidge chilly this morning as temperature obs have reached the upper 40s for many areas. The northern plains is currently under a troughing pattern with an embedded shortwave that is over the Dakotas. Ahead of this low pressure, surface forcing has generated some showers over western MN. This band of showers will continue to make its way eastward. For a few hours around sunrise, some patchy dense fog is possible across north central MN. The forecast today features a chance of showers and storms and temperatures in the 60s. The aforementioned line of precip over western MN will continue eastward and mainly be a nuisance for areas along and west of I-35 before noon. During the afternoon hours, the line of rainfall will transition to more scattered coverage along with some redevelopment back across west-central MN as the core of the low reaches southwest MN. The convective environment does support some potential for storms storms mainly across the I-90 corridor. CAPE within the mixed layer looks to reach between 500-1000 J/kg coupled with cool air aloft with a drier surface layer, could produce a few damaging wind gusts in the more organized storms. Storm total QPF for today should equate in the range between a quarter to a half inch. On Tuesday, upper-level troughing begins to depart east while ridging builds in the west. A secondary shortwave develops over Alberta and heads south over MN/WI. Although this system in particular does look much more disorganized as compared to today`s wave. Therefore, keeping only a few hundredths of accumulation at best for Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday and Thursday which will set us up for a couple of nice days with highs ranging in the 70s. H85 thermal ridging looks to be quite extensive over the Rockies however, a shortwave to our east dives over the Great Lakes and acts as a defensive line to keep even warmer temps well to our west. This weekend still look to feature a broad troughing pattern with a series of shortwaves that support the continuation of mentioning low PoPs through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR to start for all sites. Mid-level ceilings are gradually approaching from the Dakotas and will move across all TAF sites by late this morning, sooner obviously over western MN. The arrival of a clipper-type low will produce fairly widespread rain later this morning then more scattered activity into the afternoon hours. It is with this latter activity that CB/TS looks to be more prevalent as the system takes advantage of weak instability in peak heating. Thus, have opted to convert the recently-added PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups as confidence is a bit higher for this set to have CB/TS realized. Conditions will improve late afternoon into the evening as the system exits, including the lack of ceilings this evening into tonight. Winds will be fairly variable at around 5 kts then eventually become NE and breezy as the low pressure circulation moves across the east of the TAF sites. KMSP...Rain showers look to move into MSP late this morning, though there is a small chance of seeing spotty showers between 12z-15z, earlier than currently advertised. Best chances for CB/TS come early-mid this afternoon with the potential for MVFR conditions. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC