Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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386 FXUS63 KMPX 250818 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 318 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across southern MN and western WI. - Additional chances of rainfall arrive late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Not much currently on satellite early this morning except for the band of mid-level stratus over the Dakotas that will advect in from west to east over Minnesota and Wisconsin throughout the morning. Currently temperatures are noticeably about 10 degrees cooler than what they were 24 hours ago. Now that the cold front has passed, its parent trough will continue to fill in today and prog northeast into Canada. Meanwhile off to our west near Colorado and Kansas, our next system is developing and will make its way eastward. In between these two features, a warm front is expected to creep into Minnesota today and warm sites into the low 70s. Breezy 25-30mph wind gusts will hang on for a least one more day before weakening. It possible that this warm frontal boundary may interact with weak forcing to generate scattered showers and some thunder later this afternoon, especially north of a line that extends from Yellow Medicine up to Kanabec Counties. As we reach the evening and overnight hours, the shortwave to our SW will sweep across Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Rain and some embedded thunder will increase in coverage and be slow to clear through Sunday morning. Areas east of the I-35 corridor have a likely chance of seeing additional scattered showers lingering into Sunday afternoon. Highs on Sunday will range in mid 60s to low 70s. Since the last forecast update, it appears that guidance has shifted this low`s track farther southeast. Hence the decrease in latest QPF amounts which now range between few tenths to three quarters of an inch. The highest rainfall totals will remained focused to southeastern Minnesota and will greatly depend on forecast track deviation. Once Sunday`s system clears, broad troughing will be overhead across the north-central CONUS. A few shortwaves are forecast to eject off of the primary circulation and generate additional showers/storms for much of Monday and potentially on Tuesday. Good news is that Memorial Day does not appear to be a wash out although some areas could accumulate a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain. Wednesday will likely be the nicest or "quietest" day of the week as high pressure keeps any shortwaves away for at least 24 hours. Beyond there, another troughing pattern introduces multiple shortwaves providing a chance of precipitation each day for much of MN/WI. Temperatures by the end of next week will reach the upper 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration for all sites. Cloud coverage will slowly increase from start to finish, starting as high cirrus clouds that will gradually develop into ceiling in the 080-120 levels late this afternoon into this evening. A few showers are possible in west-central MN late in this TAF period so have included its mention at AXN-STC, with chances increasing beyond this TAF period so the remainder of the TAF sites are dry with this issuance. Winds will generally run SW for much of today into tonight, eventually backing to SE during the early morning hours Sunday, with speeds under 10kts through daybreak, 10-15kts this afternoon, then settling back down tonight into Sunday. KMSP...No additional concerns. Low level dry air in place is expected to mitigate any precipitation potential for this evening through early morning Sunday, but chances will increase for rain during the day Sunday. This will be addressed in the upcoming TAF issuances. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind E to NE 10 kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC