533
FXUS63 KMPX 280829
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon.

- Things become fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday.

- Another active weather pattern arrives just in time for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

All is quiet here in the very near term now that 1 of 2 shortwaves
has cleared MN/WI late last night. Temperature observations ranging
in the low to mid 50s broken mid-level stratus. Clear skies span
over southwestern MN for now. On radar, a few bands of rainfall
currently border central MN and western WI to the north extending
from Lake Superior down over to the central James River Valley in
the Dakotas. These bands are associated with shortwave number 2 and
are expect to track across much of the area today this morning. By
this afternoon, the shortwave arrives over southwestern
Wisconsin. By that time, redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms mainly east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon be
possible as seen in the latest CAM guidance. There was a little
less confidence in the western extent of potential
redevelopment west of I-35, therefore included
isolated/scattered verbiage in today`s forecast given the
current environment. Storm intensity today is not expected to
be strong or severe based off of forecast soundings however a
few better organized storms may produce small hail and gusty
winds. Temperatures will range in the low to mid 60s with mostly
cloudy skies gradually clearing from west in the afternoon and
east by this evening.

Wednesday through most of Thursday consists of upper-level ridging
over the intermountain west amplifying as it makes its way eastward
towards the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure will
be the dominant feature allowing for mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies, light winds. Temps in the creeping their way up
gradually through the 70s and lows in the mid 40s and 50s.

Thursday night into the weekend. Ridging will depart to our east as
a upper-level troughing elongates. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to be on and off all weekend considering the
broad distribution of vorticity across Minnesota and Wisconsin
during that time. Current QPF forecasts for Sunday night
Monday, could potentially be the better rainmaker of the period
with half to three quarters of an inch possible. Early into next
week, general consensus showing agreement on broad scale
ridging across the western CONUS which may aid in warmer temps
here as well as less active weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Still a fairly agitated sky given the lingering frontal boundary
across southern MN into southern WI at initialization. Precip
has ended at all TAF sites to start, but scattered showers are
expected to re-develop over mainly eastern-southern MN into
western WI later this morning and persist into early afternoon.
Not expecting much in the way of category reduction but MVFR
conditions certainly are viable. Cannot rule out CB/TS should
storms grow tall enough but chances are too low to include at
this point so will need to see how radar trends develop. Once
into late afternoon and early evening, the front will shift
away to the southeast, allowing VFR conditions to prevail this
evening through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain mainly NW,
with some occasional gustiness this afternoon.

KMSP...Have highlighted the 12z-16z timeframe as the best window
for MSP to see showers, but additional development this
afternoon could push that timing out to near 18-20z. Not looking
for much in the way of QPF, only a few hundredths up to a tenth
of an inch, thus heavy showers are not expected. Same with
CB/TS, chances are too low to include at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC