Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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533 FXUS63 KMPX 280829 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 329 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. - Things become fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. - Another active weather pattern arrives just in time for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 All is quiet here in the very near term now that 1 of 2 shortwaves has cleared MN/WI late last night. Temperature observations ranging in the low to mid 50s broken mid-level stratus. Clear skies span over southwestern MN for now. On radar, a few bands of rainfall currently border central MN and western WI to the north extending from Lake Superior down over to the central James River Valley in the Dakotas. These bands are associated with shortwave number 2 and are expect to track across much of the area today this morning. By this afternoon, the shortwave arrives over southwestern Wisconsin. By that time, redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon be possible as seen in the latest CAM guidance. There was a little less confidence in the western extent of potential redevelopment west of I-35, therefore included isolated/scattered verbiage in today`s forecast given the current environment. Storm intensity today is not expected to be strong or severe based off of forecast soundings however a few better organized storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. Temperatures will range in the low to mid 60s with mostly cloudy skies gradually clearing from west in the afternoon and east by this evening. Wednesday through most of Thursday consists of upper-level ridging over the intermountain west amplifying as it makes its way eastward towards the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature allowing for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds. Temps in the creeping their way up gradually through the 70s and lows in the mid 40s and 50s. Thursday night into the weekend. Ridging will depart to our east as a upper-level troughing elongates. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be on and off all weekend considering the broad distribution of vorticity across Minnesota and Wisconsin during that time. Current QPF forecasts for Sunday night Monday, could potentially be the better rainmaker of the period with half to three quarters of an inch possible. Early into next week, general consensus showing agreement on broad scale ridging across the western CONUS which may aid in warmer temps here as well as less active weather pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Still a fairly agitated sky given the lingering frontal boundary across southern MN into southern WI at initialization. Precip has ended at all TAF sites to start, but scattered showers are expected to re-develop over mainly eastern-southern MN into western WI later this morning and persist into early afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of category reduction but MVFR conditions certainly are viable. Cannot rule out CB/TS should storms grow tall enough but chances are too low to include at this point so will need to see how radar trends develop. Once into late afternoon and early evening, the front will shift away to the southeast, allowing VFR conditions to prevail this evening through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain mainly NW, with some occasional gustiness this afternoon. KMSP...Have highlighted the 12z-16z timeframe as the best window for MSP to see showers, but additional development this afternoon could push that timing out to near 18-20z. Not looking for much in the way of QPF, only a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch, thus heavy showers are not expected. Same with CB/TS, chances are too low to include at this point. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC