516
FXUS63 KMPX 290858
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny today with light wind and highs near 70.

- Increasing confidence in widespread rain late Thursday into
  Friday as a line of showers with a few thunderstorms moves
  from west to east. The risk for severe weather is low.

- Small hit or miss rain chances continue over the weekend.

- More widespread showers and storms should arrive late Sunday into
  Monday next week. A few storms could be strong if things come
  together just right.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery with
surface obs and RAP analysis showed clear skies across the
region with light winds and cool temperatures. Areas of fog
develop in the river valley along the MN/WI border, and also
with some of the lower-lying marshy areas. This patchy fog will
quickly burn off once the sun comes up, and expect a very
gorgeous day with sunny skies, light winds becoming southeast,
and afternoon highs near 70.

On Thursday an upper level wave will move across the High
Plains, and warm air advection will develop out ahead of it.
Isentropic ascent will lead to clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms across the Dakotas, which will meander eastward
late Thursday into Friday. HiRes models are starting to capture
this event. Chances for could begin as early as Thursday morning
across western MN, but there is increasing agreement that a
nearly solid line of showers and thunderstorms will develop by
Thursday evening. This line will slowly move eastward, and
weaken some, but should remain in tact as it moves into western
Wisconsin. For that reason, we anticipate that rain chances
will increase, and most if not all locations will end up getting
wet with this system. Instability is once again the limiting
factor with this system, so the threat for severe weather is
low. SPC has a general thunder outlooked across the region, so
lightning is the main concern.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...As mentioned in the previous
discussion, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
over the weekend. It does not appear to be a washout, but if
your planning any outdoor activities you may need to dodge a
couple period of rain.

On Sunday warm air advection ahead of a fairly flat shortwave
trough will lead to another chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. This system is still several days away, but
there should be a more favorable thermodynamic set up in place
to support deeper convection as highs reach the low 80s. That
means there is a chance for strong thunderstorms and/or possibly
heavy rain. At this point, its merely worth noting.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Prevailing VFR through the entire TAF period. Light and
variable winds this morning increasing to 5-10kts from the southeast
this afternoon. Some areas of few/sct diurnal mid-level cu could
develop after 18z but no impacts to categories/cigs expected.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Winds S 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA early. Winds S 10kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Winds SW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dunleavy