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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
227 FXUS65 KMSO 200658 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1258 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .DISCUSSION...Southwest flow continues into Friday allowing for a warming trend and occasional shower/thunderstorm chances. There is just enough instability for a few showers along the Divide this afternoon. Deep mixing will allow for afternoon gusts up to 25 mph, gusts diminish quickly around sunset. Elevated instability and moisture associated with a weak disturbance may bring sprinkles early Friday morning. This increase in mid-level moisture will enable a slight expansion in convective coverage on Friday afternoon, mainly across western Montana. Given the deep dry layer, any thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds. A transitory shortwave ridge of high pressure will traverse the Northern Rockies over the weekend, that will allow for afternoon temperatures to run around 15 degrees above normal, with mid/upper 80s in western Montana valleys, and low/mid 90s for north-central Idaho. As the ridge breaks down on Sunday afternoon, gusty westerly winds are expected. There is a 30-40% probability of valley gusts over 30 mph. Those planning activities on area lakes should prepare for choppy conditions. Daytime temperatures cool a few degrees and breezy afternoon winds continue Monday and Tuesday of next week, rain chances remain low. Nearly 80% of ensemble clusters support a weak trough impinging on the Northern Rockies late next week (27th-28th). Details are somewhat scarce but a general consensus points toward daytime temperatures returning to seasonable levels with an increase in precipitation chances. There is only a 10% probability of widespread, significant rains (> 0.50"), thus scattered showers are the most likely mode. && .AVIATION...Southwest flow continues into Friday with generally VFR conditions. Patchy fog may develop this morning, mainly along rivers. There is just enough instability for a few showers along the Divide this afternoon. Deep mixing will allow for afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts at terminal sites with gusts diminishing quickly around sunset. Elevated instability and moisture associated with a weak disturbance may bring sprinkles early Friday morning. This increase in mid-level moisture will enable a slight expansion of convective coverage on Friday afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$