183
FXUS65 KMSO 191933
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
133 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...The Northern Rockies will transition into a
southwesterly flow pattern beginning today, as the trough of low
pressure lifts out of the region. This flow pattern will open the
door for afternoon and evening showers, with isolated
thunderstorms. Brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard
from today`s convection.

Clearing skies and light winds overnight will allow for patchy
fog, primarily in the valleys in northwest Montana.

A transitory shortwave ridge of high pressure will traverse the
Northern Rockies over the weekend, that will allow for afternoon
temperatures to run around 15 degrees above normal for this time
of the year, with mid/upper 80s in western Montana valleys, and
low/mid 90s for north-central Idaho.

High confidence (80% probability) remains with the brief ridge of
high pressure beginning to flatten out early next week, leading
to an increase in daily breezes and a return to seasonable
temperatures. Model clusters are struggling with the details for
the middle and later part of next week (26th-28th). A general
consensus supports southwest flow with slightly above normal
temperatures, breezy afternoons and an occasional risk for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest flow today has started a warming and drying
trend. The southwest flow combined with the recent moisture we`ve
had is causing some showers and thunderstorms today. However,
subsidence behind the trough exiting the region will limit updraft
strength and intensity today only allowing general thunderstorms
with moderate rain and small hail this afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$